European officials are weighing a growing threat that could target vital infrastructure while leaving the Kremlin room to deny responsibility.
Russia is considering stepping up hybrid pressure on Poland and the Baltic states. Potential targets include European countries that have consistently supported Ukraine in its war against Russian aggression.
A European intelligence official said that Russian intelligence services and security agencies are developing various scenarios for hybrid operations. These could involve sabotage against critical infrastructure, as well as false-flag attacks.
The CIA Warned Countries in the Region About the Threat
A representative of a European government said that the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency had informed countries in the region about the risk of a future attack by Russia.
At the same time, European intelligence services believe that Moscow may be deliberately creating the impression that it is preparing larger-scale attacks in Europe. Such tactics may be part of an information operation aimed at spreading fear and increasing tensions in society.
A European official said there were no signs that Russia was preparing for a conventional military attack or invasion of NATO countries.
The Number of Russian Hybrid Attacks in Europe Is Increasing
Researchers note that after the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia significantly intensified covert operations against European countries. These include sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and other methods of indirect pressure.
According to available estimates, the number of hybrid attacks linked to Moscow quadrupled in 2022–2023. During 2023–2024, this figure increased another threefold.
The U.S. Helsinki Commission recorded nearly 150 hybrid operations in NATO member states that may have been linked to Russia. The period covered runs from February 2022 to November 2024.
Data on such incidents remain incomplete, but they indicate Russia’s systematic use of sabotage and information tools to pressure European countries. Poland and the Baltic states could become one of the key areas of potential escalation.