Europe’s summer disruption is spreading beyond fields and factories, with rivers, reactors and gas markets showing how climate and conflict now collide.
Europe’s economy has come under a double blow: prolonged heatwaves are weakening industry, agriculture, and transport, while the war in Iran is driving up gas prices and complicating preparations for the heating season. Extreme weather is already affecting electricity generation, business operations, river logistics, and crop yields.
In Romania, state-owned nuclear energy producer Nuclearelectrica began disconnecting its only operating reactor from the grid due to record-low water levels in the Danube. The river’s water is needed to cool the equipment. In August, the country declared an energy emergency and urged companies and households to voluntarily reduce electricity consumption.
Similar problems have emerged in France and Hungary, where high temperatures and water shortages have forced cuts in nuclear power generation. Drought conditions are also increasing the risk of large-scale wildfires and worsening crop prospects, which could add pressure to food prices.
According to estimates by the Dutch Triodos Bank, an exceptionally hot summer could cost the European economy €180 billion, equivalent to roughly 1% of GDP. This is almost equal to the European Union’s expected annual economic growth rate. The largest losses could be linked to lower labor productivity and disruptions in agriculture, energy, and freight transport.
Heat and low water levels disrupt industry
Since the beginning of the year, parts of the United Kingdom, France, Spain, and Italy have already been hit by a fifth heatwave. In Paris, the Eiffel Tower and the Louvre were closed early on certain days because of dangerous temperatures.
In Germany, critically low water levels in the Rhine are creating risks for industry and logistics. The river is vital for transporting steel, chemicals, and other goods. ING economists predict that low water levels in the Rhine could reduce German GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points this year. For a country whose economy is growing by less than 1% annually, this could become a significant drag on growth.
Chemicals giant BASF warned that disrupted deliveries of essential raw materials via the Rhine could prevent it from fulfilling some orders for chemical compounds. The company is shifting part of its cargo to road and rail transport and deploying more vessels suitable for shallow waters. Some German states have temporarily lifted the Sunday ban on truck traffic to avoid supply chain disruptions.
The agricultural sector is also being forced to adapt to new weather conditions. England’s family-run Rookery Farm begins harvesting at three o’clock in the morning to preserve the required moisture level in its produce.
Harvesting is no longer just about avoiding rain – we are now adapting to crops that can become too dry, which means more night harvesting to meet the quality standards demanded by our customers.
– Eleanor Gilbert
War in Iran drives up gas prices for Europe
Military action in the Middle East has reduced the number of available liquefied natural gas cargoes and driven up their cost. At the same time, intense heat is increasing air-conditioner use, and therefore gas demand, at a time when EU countries need to actively replenish storage facilities ahead of winter.
According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, EU gas storage facilities were 59% full on Tuesday. This is noticeably below the average for this time of year and close to the level seen in the summer of 2021, when Russia had already begun restricting gas exports to Europe.
I am truly concerned.
– Anne-Sophie Corbeau
Anne-Sophie Corbeau of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy noted that very few cargoes pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and almost all of them are bound for Asia. The effective closure of this route limits supplies equal to about one-fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas volume.
At the same time, analysts do not expect a repeat of the 2022 energy crisis. Europe has significantly reduced its reliance on Russian pipeline gas, while fuel demand in the region is about 20% lower than in 2021. However, prices remain high: on Wednesday, the benchmark European gas contract closed at €61 per megawatt-hour, compared with €32 on the same day in 2025.
Heat, drought, disruptions to river transport, and limited gas availability are simultaneously increasing pressure on Europe’s economy. The situation this winter will depend largely on the resumption of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and on whether EU countries can replenish gas storage facilities in time.