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Crude oil opened lower Monday, with WTI around $81.50, but the modest decline masks significant supply risks as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and tensions between Iran and the United States show little sign of easing.
Hormuz Traffic Remains Severely Restricted
Tanker activity through the strategic waterway has collapsed.
According to Kpler, only two vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, and neither was carrying crude. That compares with more than 130 vessels typically passing through the waterway each day before the conflict.
The disruption is creating significant uncertainty for global energy markets.
The UAE also accused Iran of striking another ADNOC tanker, while a bulk carrier was reportedly hit by an unidentified projectile.
Any further attacks on commercial shipping could intensify concerns about oil availability and push crude prices sharply higher.
WTI Opens Lower Despite Supply Concerns
WTI crude started the week roughly 1% lower near $81.50, as traders assessed the latest developments surrounding the conflict.
Iran called on the United States to accept defeat over the weekend, while officials indicated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain under Tehran’s control.
The lack of progress toward peace negotiations leaves the oil market exposed to further disruption, particularly because the strait previously handled roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies.
President Trump Warns of Higher Fuel Prices
President Trump has warned Americans to expect higher gasoline prices as a consequence of the conflict.
U.S. gasoline prices were around $4.08 per gallon on Friday, according to AAA, approximately 29% above levels from a year earlier.
Higher fuel costs are already contributing to inflation pressures and could become an increasingly important economic and political issue.
Regional Conflict Adds Another Risk
The conflict is also spreading beyond the immediate U.S.-Iran confrontation.
Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen reportedly fired ballistic missiles toward the Red Sea port of Mocha, killing four civilians.
The incident raises concerns that disruptions could extend across multiple shipping routes, increasing the potential impact on global energy markets.
For now, WTI remains below recent highs, but the unresolved Hormuz blockade leaves crude vulnerable to another sharp move higher if shipping disruptions worsen or diplomatic efforts fail.
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank’s local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.