Editor’s note: Moses Becker is a special political commentator for News.Az. He holds a PhD in political science and specialises in inter-ethnic and inter-religious relations. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of News.Az.
Recently, developments in Syria have somehow receded into the background. All attention in the Middle East is focused on the conflict between the United States and Iran, as well as oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Meanwhile, significant developments are taking place in Syria that could eventually play a key role across the region.
According to forecasts, the country’s economy is expected to grow by around 10% by the end of 2026. This is stated in a report published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on 5 August.
“Syria’s recovery is gaining momentum,” the document states. “Double-digit growth is expected in 2026, with strong momentum continuing into 2027, as evidenced by improving performance in agriculture, hydrocarbon production, electricity supply, trade and services, as well as the return of refugees, an increase in the number of people entering the country, and higher government spending.”
It should be noted that 1.5 million refugees have returned to the country since the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in 2024. As analysts emphasise, “consumer sentiment is improving”, while the economy is “gradually reintegrating” with neighbouring countries and overcoming the consequences of the 2025 drought.
Source: Reuters
In other words, the new authorities are gradually gaining credibility among broad sections of the population. The initial fear and uncertainty are gradually subsiding.
The process of reintegrating the country’s economy with neighbouring states is clearly illustrated by examples of foreign business involvement in Syria. For instance, the Syrian Electricity Company and Saudi Arabia’s Al-Harfi have signed agreements on cooperation in energy production. In July, Qatar’s Baladna announced a $3.3 billion investment in an agricultural complex on the Euphrates. In May, Baladna and the UAE’s Al Dahra agreed to exchange agricultural technologies.
In the predominantly Alawite province of Latakia, France’s CMA CGM secured management of the container terminal in 2025 and expanded its operations to include inland facilities.
GDP indicators rose sharply after Damascus restored control in spring 2026 over hydrocarbon fields in the country’s northeast that had previously been under Kurdish control. The World Bank noted that the share of oil production under the Syrian government’s control had increased from 20% to 88%.
Despite rising revenues, Syria’s new authorities remain heavily financially dependent on Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Suffice it to say that since 2025, Doha has been allocating $29 million per month to Damascus to pay the salaries of civil servants, while a Saudi fund provides $89 million for the same purpose.
“A state that is unable to pay its civil servants is dependent on its patrons. The involvement of the Arab monarchies provides a temporary cushion of stability, but the question is whether Damascus will be able to turn this respite into a functioning economy.”
An important step towards strengthening the stability of the regime came in January 2026, when Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa signed a decree formally presented as a historic step towards recognising Kurdish rights. The Kurds had long struggled for recognition of their national and civil rights. Without such a step, it was impossible to speak seriously about the country’s stability and unity.
According to various estimates, approximately 2–2.5 million Kurds live in Syria. A significant proportion of them are concentrated in the northeast of the country, known as Rojava, where, with US support, they had previously succeeded in creating the highly capable Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which numbered around 149,000 fighters in February 2025.
The SDF, however, consisted not only of Kurds but also of Arab militias, as well as Assyrian, Turkmen and other groups. Kurds, represented primarily by the YPG/YPJ, accounted for approximately 60–70% of its personnel.
This factor became crucial to the signing of an agreement between the country’s incumbent president and Kurdish leaders. As a result of these developments, some SDF fighters began transferring to the regular Syrian army and Interior Ministry forces.
Following negotiations and the signing of a framework agreement, the Syrian government recognised Kurdish as a national language, allowing it to be taught in schools in Kurdish-populated areas. Syrian citizenship was also restored to all Kurds, including those who had been deprived of it following the 1962 census. Nowruz was declared a national holiday.
Kurdish leaders described the decree as only a “first step”, stressing that their rights should be guaranteed by a permanent constitution rather than temporary decrees.
Alongside the integration of national and religious minorities into the overall structure of the state, Syria is undergoing a process of establishing new governing institutions, as demonstrated by several recent developments.
Most recently, the president appointed the Supreme Constitutional Court, comprising seven judges, including two women. A new People’s Assembly has also begun its work. It currently consists of 206 deputies representing various professional, public and political groups. Among them are former opposition figures, tribal leaders, entrepreneurs, former members of armed groups, as well as people who survived imprisonment and chemical attacks.
The People’s Assembly is expected to adopt its rules of procedure and then embark on extensive legislative work. In the longer term, it is expected to participate in drafting a permanent constitution and preparing inclusive elections.
It should be noted that, despite all these positive developments, the situation in the country remains fragile. A year after serious human rights violations in Suwayda, the issue remains unresolved.
Source: Reuters
In addition to domestic political and economic challenges, Damascus faces the task of resolving the long-standing Syrian-Israeli conflict, which has continued since 1948. The unresolved conflict creates permanent tension along the border and diverts considerable material and human resources.
With mediation from the United States, Azerbaijan and several European countries, Syria’s new authorities are attempting to resolve this issue and begin building relations with their southern neighbour from a clean slate.
Syria’s interim leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has begun indirect negotiations with Israel. These contacts largely reflect the scale of the radical changes that have recently taken place in the Middle East.
Israel and Syria are now finding areas of common interest. The most important of these is opposition to Iran, which for many years was the closest ally of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Tehran has still not come to terms with the loss of such a key ally as Syria.
Against this backdrop, Iran’s warning to Middle Eastern countries about the consequences of their involvement in the Lebanese conflict comes as no surprise. The threats were directed primarily at Syria, which Trump intended to use against Hezbollah. Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were also among those addressed.
In its statement, Iran emphasised that if Syria decides to participate in what it called the American “adventure”, a series of powerful missile strikes would be launched against Syrian territory, including against the presidential palace in Damascus.
Iran still has a substantial arsenal of ballistic missiles, while Syria has virtually no air-defence systems. The Iranian military has reportedly already identified around 100 strategic targets.
In principle, Syria has found itself virtually defenceless in the face of possible aggression by the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Recently, according to Israeli intelligence, Damascus has been making systematic efforts to restore the capabilities of the Syrian Air Force. Syria is recruiting new pilots and conducting intensive training flights. In addition, large-scale exercises involving combat aircraft have been held in the north of the country for the first time.
However, Damascus has neither the capabilities nor the financial resources required to purchase modern aircraft and train qualified pilots. Moreover, both manned and unmanned aviation are advancing at such a rapid pace that restoring the Syrian military’s former capabilities would take many decades, and even then it would still be unable to match the Israeli Air Force.
This is precisely why, for Damascus and Jerusalem, the best alternative to pointless confrontation should be peace and cooperation in the fields of economics, innovation and tourism.
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