The future of the Amazon raises concerns among scientists, who warn that it could reach a point of no return by 2040. This vast region, known as the planet’s lung, faces critical challenges due to deforestation, fires, and climate change.
Amazon: An Ecosystem in Danger
Recent research highlights how the loss of tree mass has considerably reduced rainfall, raising local temperatures at an alarming rate, twice the global average. This threatens to turn the rainforest into an irreversibly altered environment.
Forest fires and recurring droughts have increased the flammability of tropical forests. Resilient species have seen their capacity to absorb and store carbon, essential for combating global warming, diminished.
Studies published in 2026 offer new perspectives: while the Amazon rainforest shows surprising resilience post-fires, its biodiversity takes longer to fully recover. Another analysis suggests that although it is more resilient than previously thought, the resulting new ecosystems are more vulnerable to future climate changes.
Additionally, Luciana Gatti from INPE warns that the Amazon climate is no longer suitable for the region’s typical flora, due to a significant decrease in rainfall, mainly due to deforestation. Approximately half of the rain is generated internally by the trees, so less vegetation means less precipitation and more heat.
The Amazon Environmental Research Institute has documented a 74% decrease in rainfall over the past 35 years, a phenomenon that could lead the region to a critical point. Temperatures in some areas have increased up to 5°C above normal.
Bernardo Flores, a researcher at the Federal University of Santa Catarina, highlights how the balance between climate, vegetation, and humidity is crucial to understanding when this critical point will be reached. If no action is taken, the collapse could accelerate due to ongoing degradation.
Despite these challenges, the regeneration of forests after extreme events is remarkable. However, the composition of the regenerated forest may be less effective in protecting against future fires. Additionally, human practices continue to exacerbate the problems, with fires mainly induced by humans that intensify due to extreme weather conditions.
The tipping point of the Amazon, theorized since the 1980s, could arrive sooner than expected if global temperatures continue to rise. Strategies to stop deforestation, such as the PPCDam Plan in Brazil, have proven effective, but stopping logging is not enough. It is vital to restore degraded areas and protect indigenous territories.
To prevent the collapse of the Amazon ecosystem, urgent measures must be taken. Without decisive action, the forest could come increasingly closer to a point of no return.