Although the unprecedented Korean Peninsula’s super-heat wave, which had exceeded 40 degrees Celsius..

사진 확대

If greenhouse gases continue to be emitted as they are now, the average summer temperature in Seoul is expected to soar to 45.2 degrees Celsius in the 2050s. [Creating AI]

Although the unprecedented Korean Peninsula’s super-heat wave, which had exceeded 40 degrees Celsius, has been dampened, the domestic scientific community warned, “It’s only the beginning.”

Analysts say that the seawater continues to heat up due to global warming, and next summer is likely to invade us with a much longer and more intense heat wave than this year.

Many say that if the heat is over this summer and preparations are neglected, the damage and costs that humanity will have to bear every summer will be beyond imagination.

The Mail Business surveyed five domestic climate and weather experts (Kim Hyung-joon, a professor at KAIST’s Graduate School of Munsul Future Strategy, Min Seung-ki, a professor of environmental engineering at POSTECH, Sung Mi-kyung, a senior researcher at KIST’s Climate Environment Research Institute, Yoon Jin-ho, a professor of environmental energy engineering at GIST, and Lee Myung-in, head of the UNIST Heat Wave Research Center).

As a result, all experts said, “This year’s heat wave is not just an abnormal climate, but a starting point for a ‘new normal’ in which the climate landscape on the Korean Peninsula has completely changed.”

They analyzed that the number and intensity of heat waves on the Korean Peninsula will increase dramatically in the future, saying, “The phenomenon of hot air pockets trapped over the Korean Peninsula (the heat dome phenomenon of high pressure in the North Pacific and Tibet) and rising water temperatures in the surrounding sea are the main causes of the heat wave.”

In particular, it was seriously considered that the average temperature increase rate on the Korean Peninsula was faster than that of the entire planet.

Lee Myung-in, head of the UNIST Heat Wave Research Center, said, “The Korean Peninsula is showing a temperature rise five times higher than the global average. In addition, rising seawater temperatures will boost water vapor inflow, and the greenhouse effect will greatly increase tropical nights.”

사진 확대

The increasing number of days of heat waves [Climate Information Portal of the Meteorological Administration]

“In the 2030s, 40 degree heat wave is a daily occurrence”… The limit is approaching for humans to endure

If greenhouse gases continue to be emitted as they are now, the average summer temperature in Seoul will soar to 45.2 degrees Celsius in the 2050s.

Sung Mi-kyung, a senior researcher at KIST’s Climate and Environment Research Institute, said, “In the 2030s, extreme high temperatures of 40°C will no longer be an exceptional event, and there is a high possibility that heat waves exceeding 40°C will be experienced daily before and after 2050.

This is a risk that goes beyond simply being uncomfortable because it is hot and beyond the ‘survival limit line’ where people can safely operate outdoors.

In summer in Korea, humidity is close to 80%, so it is difficult to control body temperature because sweat does not evaporate well. In this state, if the temperature rises to 38-39 degrees Celsius, the survival limit temperature that the human body can withstand is reached.

In fact, the risk of exhaustion and death of vulnerable groups directly exposed to heat, such as outdoor workers, farmers and fishermen, and the elderly, has already exceeded the statistical risk level this summer.

사진 확대

a survey of five climate experts [Mail Business]

Heavy rain and typhoon after the heat wave → Drought, wildfire… We need to prepare for a series of “complex disasters.”

The bigger problem is ‘complex disasters’ in which different climate disasters strike one after another. Experts pointed to the phenomenon of disasters such as heavy rain, heat waves, and typhoons occurring one after another without coming one by one as the biggest risk factor.

For example, a “super-strong typhoon” hits the Korean Peninsula directly after an ultra-heat wave approaching 40 degrees, and a rainy season falls on the site of extreme drought and spring forest fires in autumn and winter, causing a large landslide. In fact, Geoje-si, Gyeongsangnam-do, suffered great damage due to unprecedented heavy rain after the heat wave ended.

It is pointed out that the intensity of the “triple punch” in which rainy seasons, heat waves, and typhoons are constantly blowing can become stronger. Kim Hyung-joon, a professor at KAIST’s Graduate School of Munsul Future Strategy, explained, “Rainstorms, heat waves, and typhoons are different types of natural disasters, but they are one complex disaster that shares the climate factor of North Pacific high pressure.”

In addition, there were warnings that prolonged heat waves could lead to power outages, water shortages, and water pollution due to power shortages, resulting in a series of paralysis of the national social system.

It is necessary to establish a climate prediction system for ‘long-term and complex disasters’ utilizing AI

In response, experts urged artificial intelligence (AI) climate modeling research and development (R&D) along with identifying the underlying cause of the heat wave. The current heat wave prediction model is focused on short-term forecasts of three to four days, so there is a limit to accurately predicting the mid- to long-term seasonal forecast or the intensity of the heat wave.

“There is a lack of research on scientific mechanisms for the occurrence, development, and extinction of heat waves,” said Lee Myung-in, head of the center. “It is urgent to develop a global climate prediction model optimized for climate change on the Korean Peninsula and to cultivate professional manpower.”

In addition, Min Seung-ki, a professor of environmental engineering at POSTECH, suggested, “We need to identify the causes of the growing regional polarization of water circulation, such as heavy rains in the middle, heat waves in the south, and drought, and improve predictability.”

Dr. Sung Mi-kyung emphasized the continuity of the ‘research environment’. “We need a system that accumulates observations, models, and manpower in one space for a long time for half a century like in advanced climate countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany,” he said. “It is urgent to improve the constitution of domestic climate R&D, which changes the subject of the task depending on short-term issues.”

Need a policy based on scientific data…During the heat wave, you have to “force stop” outdoor work

Experts urged the government’s climate policy to fundamentally change. In common, he pointed out, “The government’s response remains a temporary measure immediately after the disaster, and scientific data are not properly reflected in the policy-making process.”

Professor Kim Hyung-joon said, “The scientific community already knew that it would be so hot five years ago,” adding, “Policy makers should pay more attention to science and take proactive measures.”

In particular, there were many opinions that the government should strongly “force” the government to stop outdoor work in extreme heat waves where the wind chill exceeds 38 degrees Celsius. Instead, it is advised that the state should come up with a “climate insurance” or a “loss preservation support system” that shares the losses of workers and companies caused by not being able to work.

Professor Yoon Jin-ho said, “Heat diseases and deaths caused by heat waves will now occur like annual events every summer,” adding, “It is necessary to institutionalize farmers and fishermen to compensate for losses so that they or outdoor workers can immediately stop working during the day, to help them move smoothly to safe facilities such as heat shelters, and to send care workers to check their safety from time to time.”

Dr. Sung Mi-kyung also said, “Baseball games can be canceled if they are dangerous, but labor at stake is much more urgent in that it is difficult for individuals to stop easily. It is a task that our society must solve right now, he stressed.

Experts also pointed out that a national system “safety inspection” is needed assuming a series of disasters. This means not only creating a single disaster response manual, but also comprehensively checking the impact on health and industry when heat waves, power outages, and water shortages break at the same time.