Heat wave sends major shock through EU economy this summer

Heat curtails human productivity and has already claimed tens of thousands of lives, with Germany alone reporting more than 10,000 heat-related deaths.

Meanwhile, the costs of the emergency response, like fighting fires or curtailing power use, further stretch budgets.

ING estimates that the halt of traffic on the Rhine alone will lower the GDP of Germany, the world’s third-largest economy, by 0.3 percentage points this year, while Hungary’s MBH Bank sees a 0.1 percentage point GDP hit for every week the country’s largest nuclear generator is offline.

Allianz, the German insurer, estimates the two-week June heatwave alone will cut the GDP of Europe by 0.3 percentage points, and climate change will shave 5-7% off growth by 2030 for the most exposed economies like Spain, France and Italy.

“The total bill for this year will be much larger,” said Hazem Krichene, an economist at Allianz. “This figure doesn’t account for the fires, droughts, different flood events or the expected El Niño.”

Given that the euro zone is expected to grow just 1% this year, the hit is sizable.

Yet Usman says the full extent of the economic damage will only be felt several years down the line.

“You’d expect the damage to be largest in the year an extreme event happens and then to fade but we find the opposite,” Usman said. “The economic impact grows over the following years because the extreme weather set off a chain of slow economic consequences.”

Southern Europe could take the biggest hit as temperature spikes are the largest there, cutting tourism income, exacerbating crop failures and inducing outward migration.

“Can you see tourists marching through southern Italy or Spain in 45 degrees? I can’t. So, I think the nature of tourism will change,” ING economist Carsten Brzeski said.