President Donald Trump is betting new sanctions, a naval blockade and ramped-up economic pressure against Iran’s trading partners can accomplish what thousands of bombs and missiles could not: force Tehran to accept a deal to end the war on US terms.
But like other US efforts to force Iran into capitulation, there is one main problem: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has claimed control of the vital Strait of Hormuz and sent volleys of attack drones across the Gulf, may be impervious to such pressure – and has plenty of ways to retaliate.
A major part of the US effort will come on Monday, when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has promised to unveil details of a plan designed to shift the conflict from tit-for-tat strikes across the Middle East to full-blown economic isolation – a campaign that could touch nations ranging from China and India to Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.
Yet significant new economic pressure is likely to prompt Iran to retaliate with military strikes across the Gulf, including against energy infrastructure, in an attempt to push up oil prices and raise the cost of the US effort, forcing Trump to shift his approach once again.
“If this is actually effective, at some point, Iran will lash out again – they just will have no alternative,” said Nate Swanson, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council who worked on Iran issues at the State Department and White House National Security Council until last year. “Trump may see this as a different phase of the war, but I don’t think Iran does.”
Since the US and Israel first attacked Iran on February 28, Iran has repeatedly shown the ability to endure air strikes on thousands of targets, layers of sanctions and a US navy blockade – yet still retain the ability to hit back.