This monthly round-up brings you a selection of news and updates on the latest geopolitical developments.Top international stories: Uncertainty around US-Iran ceasefire; El Niño could further strain Hormuz shortages; Long-range attacks intensify in Ukraine war.
1. Uncertainty surrounds US-Iran talks
Tensions in the Gulf region have escalated amid fresh strikes from the US, Israel and Iran, and uncertainty over peace talks.
Last week, Iranian attacks on Kuwait damaged its airport and killed one person, injuring more than 60 others, Kuwaiti authorities said. Iran also claimed it had hit a US Navy HQ in Bahrain and a US airbase. The US military said it had carried out defensive strikes in southern Iran.
At the time of writing, Iran’s foreign minister said “no tangible progress” had been made in talks to end the conflict. Lines of communication with the US remained open, he confirmed, but warned that any attack on Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, as part of Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah, could reignite the US-Iran conflict.
Meanwhile, oil industry executives recently warned the US administration that disruption in the Strait of Hormuz caused by the conflict is draining inventories to levels that could send global energy prices surging in the coming weeks. Gulf countries that export oil via the Strait are in talks over pipelines that would allow them to bypass the waterway.
2. El Niño could compound effects of Hormuz disruption
An “exceptional” El Niño is set to hit a global supply chain already under strain. With global energy reserves running low and traffic through the Strait still far below pre-war levels, experts warn that the climate event could sharply worsen shortages of not just fuel but also fertilizer – another commodity hit hard by the disruption – putting future harvests and food supplies at particular risk.
A new phase of El Niño could begin in a matter of weeks and strengthen throughout the rest of the year, the UN agency says, with some weather experts describing it as potentially one of the strongest ever recorded.
More broadly, this highlights how extreme weather events – the number one long-term risk in the Forum’s latest Global Risks Report – do not exist in isolation but exacerbate existing inequalities, supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions.
Experts say governments, companies and aid agencies should prepare for what could prove to be a major systemic shock in order to mitigate any potential impact.
Extreme weather events are the top long-term global risk. Image: World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2026
3. News in brief: geopolitical developments from around the world
The UK and Poland have signed a new defence and security treaty that Britain said would improve border security, tackle organized crime and deepen defence cooperation with the European Union. The UK described the determination of the NATO military alliance to defend its territory as “unshakeable”. But following US demands that Europe do more to protect itself, both Britain and Poland have looked to seal defence deals with other nations, including France and Germany.
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4. More on geopolitics on Forum Stories
China’s economic story is increasingly about sweeping self-sufficiency. In amongst this is the soybean – and a reliance on imports to support changing diets that has become a vulnerability. What does this say about the trade-offs between food security and natural resource use many countries face? Discover more in this article.
Against a tense global backdrop, the Trump-Xi summit last month aimed to restabilize US-China relations. The leaders shared a vision of building “a constructive relationship of strategic stability” to bring enhanced certainty and predictability for the global economy. But the outcome offers just limited clarity regarding the future direction and stability of a bilateral relationship that affects the entire world. What comes next for China’s trade policy? There are four trends likely to emerge.
In an interconnected world, what happens in one region can send shockwaves across the entire global economy. Supply disruptions, such as the recent effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, for example, have far-reaching trade impacts. Yet the global trade system often relies on just-in-time logistics and concentrated supply routes. Read why a fragmented world needs more diversified trade hubs in this article.