The Coalition won’t release its long-awaited immigration policy this year, with shadow immigration minister Jonno Duniam conceding it is still working its migration target.
It comes as both Labor and One Nation also struggle to shore up their immigration figures, and the issue shapes up to be a major election battle.
Mr Duniam said the Coalition was deliberately taking its time to ensure its policy reflected the economic and social conditions Australia could face in 2028.
“I’m not going to put a date on it. That’s very much up to the Leader of the Opposition Angus Taylor,” Mr Duniam told ABC Radio National on Monday.
“But we’ve been putting in a power of work to make sure we get the numbers right because it is complex.”
Mr Duniam said it was important not to lock the Coalition into a figure that could become outdated before it had the opportunity to implement it.
“It’s not going to be this year, I don’t think, but sometime in the near future, shortly after that you will see our policy, how we get the number, and the number itself,” he said.
“We need to make sure that we are … taking into account all of the factors and circumstances that the world, the country, will face in 2028.”
Opposition Leader Angus Taylor announced in May that a Coalition government would link net overseas migration to the number of homes being built.
Mr Taylor also announced the Coalition would strip welfare from immigrants, including the age pension and other welfare payments.
Mr Taylor said the approach would result in at least a 70 per cent reduction from Labor’s peak immigration levels, with the final number dependent on housing construction.
Based on peak net migration of around 500,000, that would put the figure at roughly 150,000-170,000 people a year.
Shadow housing minister Andrew Bragg recently suggested net overseas migration could be brought down to around 180,000 in order to rebalance housing demand.
Mr Bragg later insisted that the 180,000 figure was not a Coalition target or policy, but simply the figure needed to ease housing pressures.
Meanwhile, Labor has also been grappling with mounting pressure over immigration, with Immigration Minister Tony Burke forced to cancel a major immigration speech.
Mr Burke was forced to postpone a National Press Club speech earlier this month after key measures had not secured cabinet agreement.
Labor has been increasingly spooked by the rise of One Nation, which has surged off the back of a policy of substantially lower migration.
However, One Nation has also endured some confusion about its migration stance, after rookie MP David Farley said it would be “not too different” from Labor.
Mr Farley suggested that net overseas migration could be as high as 230,000 per year “at a minimum” – which would be higher than Labor forecasts.
In response to questions from News24.com.au, a One Nation spokesperson insisted: “One Nation’s policy is to cut net overseas migration to 130,000.”
The spokesperson said the cuts would come from international students, graduate visas and dependents and a more targeted skilled migration program.
“Short-term seasonal agricultural workers who do not meet the ABS residency test are not counted in net overseas migration,” they said.
“They come for limited periods, often live on farms or regional properties while they work, and return home.”
If backpackers or labour workers do not remain in Australia for 12 months over a 16-month period, they are not included in the net overseas migration figure.