A former NATO military leader warns that Europe faces prolonged instability and says one overlooked country could become central to its security future.
Ukraine must play a full role in shaping Europe’s future security system. This was stated by Dutch military official Rob Bauer, who chaired NATO’s Military Committee from 2021 until January 2025.
During an event marking Ukraine’s Independence Day in Amsterdam, organized by the Protect Ukraine foundation, he emphasized that European countries should prepare for a prolonged period of instability. According to him, Ukraine must not be viewed merely as a state receiving support from its partners.
Russia Is Becoming Increasingly Dependent on China
Rob Bauer drew attention to the strengthening ties between Moscow and Beijing. In his assessment, China receives cheap and strategically important resources from Russia, while the Kremlin, in turn, gains access to a vast market, investment, technology, components for weapons production, as well as diplomatic and economic support.
The partnership between Russia and China is reaching a new level. China receives cheap and strategically important Russian resources and a powerful partner in its confrontation with the United States. Russia, in turn, receives an enormous market, investment, access to technology, critically important components for weapons production, diplomatic support, and an economic lifeline. Make no mistake: although this may be presented to the world as a partnership, the reality is that Russia is increasingly becoming a vassal state of China.
– Rob Bauer
In Bauer’s view, ending China’s support for Moscow could influence the end of Russia’s war against Ukraine. At the same time, he does not expect Beijing to take such a step.
He also noted that Vladimir Putin has failed to achieve either the military or political objectives he set before launching the full-scale aggression. In response, Russia continues to escalate: carrying out missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, attacking energy infrastructure, and increasing hybrid pressure on European states.
Strengthening Air Defense and Striking Russia’s Military Infrastructure
The former chair of NATO’s Military Committee believes that Europe and Ukraine’s allies need to reduce the shortage of air defense systems, increase defense production, and intensify sanctions pressure on Russia.
He separately stressed the importance of countering Russia’s “shadow fleet.” He also said that it is necessary to strike facilities that support the Russian war machine, including railway infrastructure, ports, and defense-industrial enterprises.
Ukraine is not merely a country that Europe supports. It is increasingly becoming a country that Europe needs.
– Rob Bauer
Ukraine’s Experience Is Important for Europe’s Security
Rob Bauer emphasized that the prolonged high-intensity war has given Ukraine unique experience in conducting modern warfare. He is convinced that Ukraine should not be perceived as a temporary buffer between Russia and European countries.
The Ukrainian state, its defense capabilities, and its practical experience must become an important part of Europe’s new security architecture. According to Bauer, Ukraine’s full integration into this process is an essential condition for stability on the continent.