Record shipments are meeting a harder test: buyers across Europe and Asia may hesitate as expensive gas collides with seasonal demand and energy transition.
U.S. liquefied natural gas producers shipped record volumes of fuel in 2026. At the same time, the sharp rise in gas prices in key global markets could weaken demand in the coming months among buyers for whom price is the deciding factor.
Forward prices for natural gas and LNG in Europe and Asia, which receive more than 80% of U.S. liquefied gas exports, have risen to their highest levels in more than three years, according to LSEG.
The U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran has disrupted vessel traffic in the Persian Gulf and led to a more than 60% year-on-year decline in LNG exports from Qatar, according to Kpler data. Reduced supplies from one of the world’s largest exporters have supported prices and created conditions for record shipments from the United States.
However, expensive cargoes and the seasonal decline in gas consumption could prompt importers to postpone new purchases. As a result, U.S. LNG exports risk facing weaker demand even amid constrained market supply.
LNG Prices Rise in Asia and Europe
According to LSEG estimates, the forward price of liquefied gas deliveries to Asia in October, November, and December could exceed $22 per million British thermal units (MMBtu).
By comparison, the average LNG price in Asia since the start of 2026 has been just under $17 per MMBtu. The projected level would be the highest since early 2023, when the global gas market was dealing with the consequences of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and disruptions to Russian gas supplies.
After the end of summer, gas consumption in Asia typically declines as the need for cooling systems decreases. Therefore, purchases by major consumers in Japan, China, and South Korea may slow until inventories begin to be replenished ahead of the winter season.
In Europe, benchmark gas prices at the Dutch trading hub are expected to range from $21.50 to $22.50 per MMBtu from October through December. This would be the highest level since late 2022.
Despite high prices, gas demand in Europe is showing signs of weakening. Rising electricity generation from renewable sources is displacing gas-fired power generation, while households and businesses are increasingly switching to electric heating and other technologies that reduce fossil fuel use.
At the same time, Europe’s gas storage facilities remain filled well below the long-term average. Energy companies will need to replenish reserves before demand rises during the heating season.
However, current import trends indicate that buyers are in no rush to book additional LNG cargoes at current prices. In July, Europe imported 6.2 million metric tons of liquefied gas – the lowest July figure since 2021, according to Kpler.
The low pace of imports indicates that concerns about high fuel costs currently outweigh worries about the reliability of future supplies.
Record U.S. Exports May Face New Risks
For U.S. exporters, a possible short-term decline in demand is not a critical factor, as they have already set a record for shipment volumes in the first seven months of the year.
From January through July 2026, U.S. companies exported just over 73 million tons of LNG. This was 23% more than in the same period of 2025, according to Kpler data.
At the same time, persistently high gas prices in key sales markets could accelerate consumers’ shift toward electrification and alternative energy sources. This effect may be most pronounced in Asian countries that are sensitive to energy costs and are rapidly expanding renewable generation and energy storage systems.
Expensive gas could also reduce the number of discretionary purchases by storage operators. At high prices, they may refrain from filling tanks, fearing weak winter demand and limited opportunities to resell fuel later.
An additional challenge for LNG exporters will be the planned significant increase in capacity. Several new projects and expansions of gas liquefaction plants are expected to come online in the United States and Canada by the end of the decade.
Most of these projects were approved on the assumption that global gas consumption would grow in step with supply. If high prices restrain demand and accelerate the energy transition, U.S. and other exporters will have to compete more aggressively for buyers even with substantial volumes of LNG available for sale.