Atlantic hurricane season is headed toward its typically busiest time of year, and one disturbance could become Tropical Storm Dolly later this week.
Here are the areas we’re watching
The graphic below shows the area being monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Atlantic.
Chances of development?
Eastern Atlantic (Invest 96L): The tropical wave is off the coast of Africa south of the Cabo Verde Islands and could develop into a tropical depression, then possibly Tropical Storm Dolly within the next few days.
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Editor’s note: The National Hurricane Center plans to use “Dolly” for the next system that reaches tropical storm strength. “No changes to the list,” according to an NHC spokesperson. The name “Dolly” was chosen in the early 1990s and has been on a rotating list of names since 1996 and was also used prior to the 1990s.
(MORE: What tropical terms actually mean)
Are either of these a threat?
The system is still about 2,500 miles away from the Lesser Antilles.
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There appear to be two options with this:
It could struggle with the same El Niño-enhanced wind shear and dry air other systems have fought against in recent weeks as it continues moving toward the west-northwest, arriving near the Lesser Antilles by Sunday with some increase in showers.
(MORE: What is wind shear?)
If it fights off this shear and dry air and develops, it’s expected to then make a northward turn next week in the Atlantic, where it could escape El Niño’s influence. Some computer guidance says this could be a tropical storm or hurricane as it gets to the subtropical Atlantic a week to ten days from now.
While it’s too soon to be certain about what happens with this system next week, it is not an immediate concern for the mainland U.S.
Those in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system, as with any system during hurricane season.
Tropics on the rise
We are in the ramp-up of the Atlantic hurricane season.
The escalation begins in August and continues until peak hurricane season in the second week of September.
El Niño is also ramping up, but that doesn’t guarantee that no storms will form. It just hinders their chances.
It only takes one storm to make a hurricane season impactful.
Rob Shackelford is a meteorologist and climate scientist at weather.com. He received his undergraduate and master’s degrees from the University of Georgia, studying meteorology and experimenting with alternative hurricane forecasting tools.