A sharp annual decline is exposing mounting pressure on Russia’s energy system, while restricted data leaves the full scale of disruption unclear.

Production of coke and petroleum products in Russia declined by 19.3% in July 2026 compared with July 2025. At the same time, the figure rose by 5.6% month-on-month from June, according to Rosstat data released on August 26.

Rosstat’s report on Russia’s socioeconomic situation for January–July 2026 states that over the seven-month period, output in the coke and petroleum products manufacturing sector fell by 9.2% year-on-year.

The steepest decline was recorded in June

The largest year-on-year decrease in petroleum product production in Russia this year occurred in June. At that time, the output index for coke and petroleum products was 21.7% lower than in June 2025.

Rosstat does not publish absolute fuel production volumes. Russian authorities have restricted access to such statistics, leaving only the overall index for the “manufacture of coke and petroleum products” sector available in public data.

Refinery strikes and fuel disruptions

The decline in fuel output comes amid Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. The intensity of such strikes has increased in recent months, affecting plant operations and causing fuel supply disruptions in several Russian regions.

Due to problems with oil refining, Russia has also begun purchasing fuel abroad. At the same time, the country continues to export crude oil, although shipment volumes from western ports have declined.

Oil exports through Novorossiysk declined

In the first half of August 2026, oil shipments from Russia’s western ports amounted to about 2.3 million barrels per day. This was approximately 15% below the initial loading plan.

Export reductions were affected by disruptions at the port of Novorossiysk following Ukrainian attacks. According to traders, oil shipment volumes through the port fell to approximately 0.4 million barrels per day.

For comparison, in June and July, exports through Novorossiysk ranged from 0.8 million to 1 million barrels per day. Thus, problems with oil refining and port infrastructure are simultaneously putting pressure on Russia’s fuel market and oil exports.