Bank of Korea raises 2026 growth forecast to 3.3% on AI chip exports

The Bank of Korea (BOK) on Thursday raised its economic growth forecast for Korea to 3.3 percent for this year, citing strong semiconductor exports driven by steady demand for AI infrastructure.

The revision represents a 0.7 percentage-point increase from the BOK’s previous forecast of 2.6 percent issued in May.

The central bank has raised its 2026 growth forecast two times since it projected 2 percent growth in February.

It marked the highest growth forecast issued by the central bank since 2021, when the BOK projected 4.7 percent growth.

The BOK’s estimate is also higher than the Korean government’s 3 percent growth outlook published last month.

Recently, most global investment banks have revised their growth forecasts for the Korean economy to 3 percent or higher, including 3.5 percent from Moody’s and 3.4 percent from Morgan Stanley.

For 2027, the central bank estimated its growth outlook at 2.9 percent, up from 2.1 percent in May.

The Korean economy grew 1.8 percent in the first quarter from a quarter earlier, marking the strongest quarterly growth since the third quarter of 2020, when the economy expanded 2.2 percent.

In the second quarter, Asia’s fourth-largest economy expanded 0.6 percent, sharply exceeding the BOK’s May forecast of 0.2 percent growth.

The BOK retained its earlier forecast for consumer price inflation of 2.7 percent in 2026 and 2.3 percent in 2027.

Yonhap