According to the latest labour market statistics from the HCSO, the unemployment rate has risen slightly once again. In July, the unemployment rate rose to 4.5% according to the monthly model estimate. Meanwhile, the official three-month moving average survey was also moving upwards to 4.6%. At first glance, these two indicators suggest a negative trend in the labour market. However, closer analysis of the detailed data reveals a more nuanced picture. The number of unemployed people changed only minimally, remaining at around 220,000 in July, which is in line with last year’s average.
A closer look at the details shows some notable positive changes. The number of economically inactive people has decreased by almost 42,000. Of this decrease, around 5,000 can be attributed to a fall in population, while the remaining 37,000 people became active participants in the labour market. Of these, 29,000 found jobs, meaning employment rose by this amount in July. However, an additional 8,000 people joined the ranks of the unemployed. The increase in the number of employed people in July was so significant that the latest statistics mark a peak not seen since August last year. Furthermore, the average employment rate over the past three months reached a new record of 65.5% for the May-July period.
In our view, this positive change is primarily a reflection of the increase in seasonal work. This is indicated by the fact that the increase was primarily among women in the workforce, which, based on recent years’ statistics, is a typical summer phenomenon. It is also worth briefly returning to the issue of population decline, which continues. Based on the latest data, this trend means that by July 2026, the working-age population will be 175,000 smaller than in mid-2022, when the Hungarian labour market was at its peak.