Years ago, during Donald Trump’s first presidency, I made a prediction.
John Krull, publisher, TheStatehouseFile.com
I wrote that, while Trump doubtless was going to do damage to many American institutions and aggravate Democrats to no end, he was going to hurt the Republican Party the most. His ceaseless demands that Republicans honor his every irrational whim and defend even his most idiotic and self-destructive acts were going to take the GOP right over the edge of the political cliff.
That’s what seems to be happening now.
At present, all the smart money is betting that Democrats will regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives come November. Worse—for Republicans, that is—is the fact that control of the U.S. Senate now seems to be up for grabs.
It’s important to understand how unusual—even how unprecedented—this is.
The party out of power generally does well in off-year elections, when presidents are not on the ballot.
In part, this is because Americans have an innate sense of caution and don’t like handing one party or the other unchecked power for too long. Mid-term elections give the voters a chance to tighten the leash on leaders eager to roam too far to either the right or the left.
But these off-year elections are also an early report card on what Americans think about a president and how his or her party is performing. Some presidents march through the mid-terms pretty much unscathed.
Trump and his party, on the other hand, appear to be headed toward an epic shellacking.
Losing the Senate would signify a massive public rejection of this president’s leadership. The electoral map this year does not favor Democrats.
In fact, it’s almost stacked against them. Even in an off-year election, there shouldn’t be a way for Democrats to be competitive in GOP strongholds such as Texas, Iowa and Alaska.
But they are.
Closer to home, here in Indiana Republicans have dominated the political stage for nearly two decades. No Democrat has won a statewide race since 2012.
Yet, this year, Democrat Beau Bayh is favored to win the state secretary of state campaign.
And the three most prominent officeholders in state government—Gov. Mike Braun, Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith and Attorney General Todd Rokita—all have public approval ratings that normally only infectious diseases would record.
Trump is at the heart of all these troubles for the GOP.
Polls show that he is underwater in 47 of the 50 states—including Indiana and including other states the president carried by comfortable double-digit margins less than two years ago. And even in the three states in which Trump still has at least a 50% approval rating, the number has shrunk dramatically since his re-election.
Those polls show that voters are angry with the president because he hasn’t done anything to bring inflation under control and he’s slowed or even stopped job growth. They don’t like his enthusiasm for trade wars and the tariffs—which are consumption taxes levied on ordinary Americans—he uses to fight them.
They also do not care for the cavalier way he starts and conducts real wars. They fear that, because of his fecklessness, we may be stuck with the war he began with Iran for a long time.
These concerns reveal themselves across the board. While Republicans overall still back him, their support has softened significantly. Democrats are energized in opposition to him.
And he is toxic with independents.
This creates a dangerous situation for both parties.
Democrats may be tempted once again to mistakenly read wholesale opposition to Trump as an equally sweeping endorsement of them and their policies.
It isn’t.
If they come out on top come November, it will be because Trump and Republicans lost—and not because the Democrats won.
But Republicans have the most to lose.
Now that it is becoming clear to Americans just how foolish and reckless this president has been—and just how little he cares about the hopes and needs of the people who put him in office—voters are beginning to add up just how many chances Republicans everywhere had to impose restraints on Trump’s wanton ways and stand up for voters’ interests.
And just how many times GOP officials decided to duck their most basic responsibilities.
There are always costs for such cowardice and incompetence.
And Republicans are likely to pay them for years to come.
John Krull is director of Franklin College’s Pulliam School of Journalism and publisher of TheStatehouseFile.com, a news website powered by Franklin College journalism students. The views expressed are those of the author only and should not be attributed to Franklin College.