Europe is being urged to prepare for the worst, but Finland’s president sees powerful reasons Moscow may avoid testing the alliance’s resolve.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb, whose country shares an approximately 1,300-kilometer border with Russia, does not consider a direct attack on NATO by Moscow likely. He disagrees with warnings from German officials that Russia could be ready to attack Alliance territory by 2029.
As reported by bild.de.
According to Stubb, Europe must prepare for the worst-case scenario while also avoiding panic over Russian threats and hybrid attacks. His strategic goal remains clear: Russia must be defeated in its war against Ukraine.
If someone had such a crystal ball, that would be great. But I simply see neither evidence nor facts to support that. I do not believe Russia would ever want to attack the most powerful military alliance in the world – NATO.
– Alexander Stubb
At the same time, the Finnish president emphasized that calls for calm do not mean neglecting security. In his view, countries must be prepared for the worst precisely to prevent it from happening.
Stubb explained his position by pointing to intelligence data and NATO’s deterrent power. He noted that the Alliance has conventional armed forces, missiles, and nuclear capabilities, meaning that no country would benefit from testing its resolve in practice.
What options for escalation remain available to Russia
The Finnish president is also skeptical about the likelihood of Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine. He said that he raised the issue during a visit by China’s foreign minister and received assurances that Beijing would not allow such a scenario to materialize. Stubb believes this could be an effective deterrent.
In his view, Russia’s information war is intended to sow fear in Europe and force it to constantly discuss possible escalation scenarios – from the use of nuclear weapons to an attack on NATO.
At present, Russia’s options for escalation are quite limited. The only way it can still intensify the war is through mobilization. And mobilization, in my opinion, would have domestic political consequences for Russia.
– Alexander Stubb
Despite this, Stubb allows for the possibility that Russia could announce a new mobilization in the autumn. In his view, legislative initiatives aimed at closing the borders and restricting freedom of movement point to such intentions.
The Finnish president believes that the current pace of warfare is becoming increasingly difficult for Russia to sustain. In his estimation, the Russian army is losing between 30,000 and 35,000 troops every month while recruiting around 27,000 new soldiers. As a result, the size of its personnel is declining and the situation at the front is becoming more difficult.
Stubb sees no signs that Russia is capable of deploying forces for a war on two fronts simultaneously. Therefore, he considers an attack on another country while continuing the war against Ukraine unlikely.
Economic difficulties will not force the Kremlin to stop the war
Alexander Stubb does not expect an economic downturn to force Vladimir Putin to abandon the war. Inflation, a banking crisis, high interest rates, and the heavy losses suffered by the Russian army will not, in his view, by themselves bring the hostilities to an end.
One should never underestimate how much economic hardship Russians can endure.
– Alexander Stubb
The turning point could come only if the Russian regime itself were threatened. Stubb believes the Kremlin must conclude that continuing the war no longer offers benefits for maintaining its grip on power. For now, he says, Moscow has already found itself in a difficult position.
Stubb believes Ukraine is stronger than before
Unlike his assessment of Russia, the Finnish president views Ukraine’s position positively. He said that the country is now in a better position than at any previous point in the war – in military, political, and financial terms.
Ukraine has the advantage and will win this war. If victory means survival, preserving independence, and remaining a sovereign state, then that is victory.
– Alexander Stubb
The Finnish president views support for Ukraine not only as assistance to a state fighting aggression but also as an investment in Europe’s security.
We – both you in Germany and we in Finland – must understand that Ukraine is the best guarantee of our security against Russia. If Ukraine loses, so do we.
– Alexander Stubb
A call not to lose composure over hybrid attacks
Commenting on attempted drone attacks in the area of Leipzig/Halle Airport, Stubb urged Germany to respond with restraint. He believes Berlin could publicly announce that those responsible for the incidents had been identified while simultaneously conveying an appropriate diplomatic signal to Russia.
The Finnish leader spoke positively about the unexpected visit by CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow. According to him, dialogue between the American and Russian sides should be maintained in various formats, including between the militaries.
I think this is the right thing to do. Truly. I believe the dialogue must continue. I hope that the American military is also maintaining contacts with the Russian military.
– Alexander Stubb
Ratcliffe arrived in Moscow on Tuesday and held talks with his Russian counterparts. According to various media reports, he sought to persuade the Kremlin not to intensify the war against Ukraine and to move toward peace negotiations.
Stubb believes that even against the backdrop of hybrid attacks, Europe should restore political contacts with Russia. In his view, silence could contribute to the Kremlin developing false assumptions about the actions and intentions of European states.
Someone in Europe must restore dialogue with Russia in order to understand what is happening there. We need to speak to one another at the political level.
– Alexander Stubb
Thus, the Finnish president is calling for stronger defenses, continued support for Ukraine, and an avoidance of panic in response to Moscow’s actions. In his view, composure and a willingness to engage in dialogue should complement military deterrence.