From low-cost drones to national resilience, one expert says the alliance should rethink how it prepares for long, high-intensity conflicts.
Ukraine, which has been repelling Russia’s full-scale aggression for more than four years, has accumulated unique experience in modern warfare that is important for NATO. It encompasses not only the effective use of available technologies on the battlefield, but also the ability of the state and society to withstand a prolonged military confrontation.
As reported by the online media outlet Ukrinform.
Can Kasapoglu, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, emphasized that Ukraine’s experience demonstrates the effectiveness of the large-scale use of low-cost strike capabilities.
Ukraine offers NATO invaluable lessons. The first is that relatively modest expenditures can counter enormous ones. Affordable, scalable, and resilient mass solutions can outperform high-tech and extremely expensive systems on the battlefield.
– Can Kasapoglu
Ukrainian Drones and Asymmetric Defense
According to the expert, the ratio between the cost of Ukrainian drones and the Russian equipment they destroy demonstrates the advantages of an asymmetric defense model. It makes it possible to inflict substantial losses on the enemy and gradually deplete its resources without proportionally increasing one’s own spending.
Kasapoglu also drew attention to the need for a realistic assessment of Russia’s “red lines.” In his view, such threats should not become a reason to forgo necessary defense decisions.
Ukraine sank the cruiser Moskva, struck Moscow, attacked Crimea and Alabuga, damaged energy infrastructure, and, as part of Operation Spiderweb, hit bases housing strategic bombers. Before the war, Western analysts considered such actions possible threshold events after which Russia might use tactical nuclear weapons. That did not happen. The risk remains, but deterrence must be based on real experience rather than paralysis in decision-making.
– Can Kasapoglu
Ukraine’s National Resilience as a Lesson for NATO
Kasapoglu identified national resilience as a separate factor. In the conditions of a large-scale war, Ukraine has managed to keep state institutions functioning, sustain its defense, and preserve the functioning of society, which is of great importance to its partners.
According to the expert, Ukraine’s experience should be taken into account as NATO prepares for possible prolonged interstate conflicts. In such wars, decisive factors will include not only modern weapons, but also stockpiles, production capacity, the speed of technological adaptation, and society’s endurance.