Analysts aren’t buying the notion that Trump’s recent acquisition of millions of barrels of Venezuelan oil will reduce gas prices for American consumers.

In a post on Truth Social on Friday, President Donald Trump said the US has secured majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil. He said it would “substantially” lower gas prices.

“This Historic Transaction MORE THAN DOUBLES American Oil Reserves, greatly increases our Oil Supply, and will substantially lower Gas Prices for all Americans, long into the future,” Trump wrote.

In a post on Sunday, Trump said that some of that oil will be used to “fill up the strategic national reserves,” which have dwindled during the ongoing US war on Iran to a 40-year low.

Analysts, however, say the deal is unlikely to meaningfully lower gas prices anytime soon, citing underdeveloped oil infrastructure in Venezuela.

The United States captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in a surprise overnight raid in January. After the raid, Trump said a change in leadership was necessary to stem the flow of drugs into the United States. Trump accused Maduro of using Venezuela’s oil industry — which the Trump administration said the US built and intended to take back — to fund narco-terrorism and other criminal activities.

Here’s what smart people are saying about the US acquisition of Venezuelan oil.

Patrick De Haan, petroleum analyst

Patrick De Haan, a petroleum analyst and head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, was similarly skeptical that Trump’s deal would provide Americans with much relief at the pump in the near future.

While Venezuela may have tens of billions of barrels of oil underground, actually getting that crude to market would require billions of dollars of investment and years of work, De Haan said.

“Drilling and pumping that oil will take a very long time,” De Haan said on X. “Changes to fuel prices won’t happen overnight or even in months.”

Rory Johnston, oil market researcher

Rory Johnston, an oil market researcher and founder of Commodity Context, said Trump’s announcement conflates the amount of oil sitting underground with the amount of oil that can actually reach the market.

Johnston, speaking on the Canadian network CBC on Sunday, said Venezuela’s vast reserves don’t translate into an immediate increase in global oil supply. Extracting significantly more crude from the country would require substantial investment and could take years, he said.

That means the 65 billion barrels touted by Trump aren’t about to flood the market and push down prices at the pump.

“The 65 billion barrel number is a red herring and will have little relevance to any actual deals,” Johnston separately wrote on X, adding that most of the details that would determine the deal’s actual impact remain unknown.

Tracy Shuchart

Tracy Shuchart, a senior economist at NinjaTrader Live, pushed back on the idea that Venezuela’s massive reserves will quickly translate into cheaper gas.

“Everyone cheering the Venezuela deal that thinks a flood of cheap oil is about to hit and pull gas prices down. It isn’t,” Shuchart wrote in a post on X on Sunday.

Venezuela is producing about 1.2 million barrels of oil a day, she added, with much of the recent increase coming from Chevron ramping up existing wells rather than new drilling.

“The easy barrels are already back,” Shuchart wrote.

Shuchart said the country’s oil reserves are a stock that will take decades to turn into actual production.

“The barrels that could actually move a US pump price are 5 to 15 years out,” she wrote.

Amena Bakr

Amena Bakr, head of Middle East and OPEC+ research at commodities intelligence firm Kpler, also pointed to the scale of investment required to increase Venezuela’s oil output significantly.

“Years of consistent major investments are needed to build new oil infrastructure for oil production to cross the 1.5 million bpd mark in Venezuela,” Bakr wrote in a post on X on Saturday.

Venezuela’s interim President Delcy Rodríguez said on state television Saturday that the new US-Venezuela energy agreement calls for the development of 17 oilfields with a production target of more than 1.5 million barrels per day.