At this point, agriculture has not been hit nearly as hard as many other industries by the escalating trade war between Canada and the United States, but that could change quickly.
Honey producers are directly impacted by the new American tariffs. Some farm equipment or parts are on the list as well.
Meanwhile, Canadian counter-tariffs scheduled for Sept. 8 will have some impact on Canadian equipment sales across the border.
But what happens after Canadian counter-tariffs are implemented? Based on past experience, it doesn’t end there. U.S. policy has been to punish retaliation.
Even though agriculture has not been broadsided, at least not yet, you have to wonder and worry about the Canadian economy. The federal deficit, already enormous, will likely grow even larger.
Increasingly, the Canadian approach seems to be surviving the next two and a half years and hoping for a different U.S. administration or at least a softening of views when Donald Trump leaves office. Hope isn’t much of a strategy.
And what of counter-tariffs?
Most Canadians support the idea of striking back, even it it’s a little like kicking a bully in the shins as he has both hands around your throat.
While supporting counter-tariffs, most would agree that tariffs are inherently bad for both partners in the equation.
If tariffs either way are a drag on both economies, forcing prices higher and creating all sorts of business uncertainty, Canadian counter-tariffs are a bit like cutting off your nose to spite your face.
However, what else can Canada do when a new trade deal seems untenable.
Polls show strong support for Canada walking away from the deal offered, even though reports made an agreement sound so close. All the opposition parties and all the provincial premiers supported Canada saying no to a deal. No deal, most say, is better than a bad deal.
However, the blame game will continue to play out for a long time. There have been calls for all the negotiating documents to be released so people can decide for themselves which side was being unreasonable.
However, the whole negotiation was due to the Americans threatening huge new duties, even on items covered by the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, the still existing trade deal signed and lauded by Trump in his first term.
With the country under economic attack, you’d think Canadians would be even more united than the polls indicate. Unfortunately, a vocal minority are happy believing and supporting Trump and the American side over prime minister Mark Carney and the Canadian negotiating team.
Carney carries some baggage, based on his history and financial interests, and all politicians tend to interpret the truth through their own lens, but it’s amazing to find Canadians who would rather believe Trump than Carney.
Trump consistently lies and fabricates, sometimes due to naivety and sometimes with intent. Occasionally, he will even brag about it later, and yet he has supporters on this side of the border.
On the other end of the scale are those Canadians who want to cut off oil, electricity and potash exports to the United States. That, they say, will get their attention and show them they actually need what Canada can supply.
This approach would be a dangerous escalation.
The best path forward is still through the negotiating table. Negotiating with a misguided bully and his subordinates is not a pleasant prospect. While distasteful and unfair, it’s still the best option.