An already sluggish Quebec economy is set to see the hardest hit to its industry of any province from the latest round of U.S. tariffs, losing close to $2 billion in annual output by 2028, a new report has warned.
Oxford Economics, a global economic forecasting firm, estimates that the tariffs will leave Quebec’s gross value added (GVA) — a measure of economic output created by businesses and industries — about 0.3 per cent lower than it otherwise would have been in 2028, marginally worse than those forecast for New Brunswick and Ontario, the other two hardest-hit provinces. Using Quebec’s GVA figures from 2024, that would put the loss at around $1.8 billion.
The report covers the economic effects on Canada of the new 50 per cent tariffs imposed earlier in August on roughly $28 billion worth of Canadian goods, targeting selected wood products, machinery, furniture, clothing, food, alcohol and consumer goods. Although U.S. importers pay the tariffs at the border, they hurt Canadian businesses’ competitiveness by making their goods more expensive for American buyers.