3 takeaways from 3 byelections
We’ll see where the final numbers settle, but we’ve seen enough to draw some broad takeaways for the three biggest national parties.
For the Liberals, this went about as well as they could have hoped. One might quibble around the edges — their vote is down in Beaches-East York from the high of 2025, they might end up a smidge lower in North Vancouver-Capilano — but they won all three ridings decisively and, most important, took a seat from the Conservatives. Carney’s decision to appoint Richard Martel to the Senate has worked out pretty well.
The Conservatives can say they only held Chicoutimi-Le Fjord because of Martel’s personal popularity, but it’s a loss for a caucus that didn’t need another one. The party’s vote share was also down in Beaches-East York and could end up lower in North Vancouver-Capilano. Those results will be the focus of reporters’ questions whenever Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre next meets the media.
The NDP result in Beaches-East York is on par with where the party was before its vote collapsed in last year’s general election. That’s something, though it was still well short of what the party got when it won the riding in 2011 and formed the Official Opposition. But then the NDP vote is still on the floor in North Vancouver-Capilano, with the Greens taking third.
That’s at least enough for the pundits to chew on until the next round of byelections, probably this fall.