US traders bet on $95 oil as Hormuz conflict escalates Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock
Prediction market Polymarket now puts a 57% chance on West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude touching $95 a barrel before the end of September.
That probability has risen seven percentage points in recent trading, reflecting mounting fears over a widening confrontation between the United States and Iran.
WTI, the main US oil benchmark, was trading around $87 to $88 a barrel on Wednesday after climbing sharply from an $86.30 open.
The rally followed reports that US forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, a move that marked a return to direct military exchanges between Washington and Tehran.
President Trump was reported to have vowed to “hit them very hard”, with threats extending to Kharg Island, Iran’s principal oil export terminal.
Polymarket’s data also shows traders assign a 68% probability to WTI hitting $85 this month, a level the contract has already brushed given current prices.
By contrast, the chance of oil reaching $100 has fallen 18 percentage points to 33%, suggesting some scepticism that the crisis will escalate into a full supply shock.
More extreme scenarios remain priced as unlikely: a move to $150 carries just a 2% probability, according to the market, which has attracted more than $701,000 in trading volume.
The Hormuz tensions come alongside separate disruption from Russia, where refinery strikes have tightened global refining capacity and pushed refined product margins higher.
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has also been drawn down close to minimum operational levels amid increased crude exports, according to Investing.com, leaving policymakers with less room to intervene if prices spike further.
Separately, two oil supertankers were struck by projectiles this week while attempting to exit the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for global energy flows.
Iran has retaliated with missile and drone strikes on US air bases in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates, according to Barchart, deepening concerns that the conflict could disrupt exports for weeks or months.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket allow users to bet on the outcome of real-world events, with prices reflecting the collective view of probability among traders.
The next settlement date for WTI futures contracts is 22 September, a point at which the current standoff’s trajectory should be considerably clearer.