Elon Musk in Los Angeles on May 6, 2024. (Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images)
Elon Musk predicted artificial intelligence and humanoid robots could dramatically expand the global economy and eventually produce more than all human workers combined, outlining an increasingly ambitious vision for an automated future.
Speaking virtually to the G20 on Tuesday and reported by CNBC, Musk said he expects more than 1 billion humanoid robots within 10 years, with each capable of producing roughly five times as much as a person.
Once robots can manufacture other robots, he said, production could accelerate rapidly and ultimately increase overall economic output by a factor of 10 or more.
Musk separately estimated that digital AI alone could increase the global economy by 20% to 30%, or roughly $20 trillion to $30 trillion annually.
He predicted that by the end of next year, AI could perform virtually any digital task that does not require manipulating the physical world.
The Tesla and SpaceX CEO said the biggest near-term constraint on that expansion could be electricity rather than computer chips, pointing to rapidly rising demand from AI data centers.
He also urged governments to expand power generation and take a relatively permissive approach to regulating emerging technologies, arguing excessive rules tend to protect established companies at the expense of startups.
The predictions fit into Musk’s broader outlook that AI and robotics will eventually create such extraordinary productivity that traditional employment becomes unnecessary.
Musk has repeatedly predicted a future of “universal high income,” rather than simply universal basic income, in which AI and robots produce enough goods and services to make working optional.
In July, he summarized that view by saying AI and robots would eventually be able to “do everything,” resulting in universal high income and optional work.
Musk has gone further in recent months, arguing that government checks could distribute some of the wealth generated by automation to people displaced from their jobs.
He has said federal “universal high income” payments would be the best response to AI-driven unemployment, contending that enormous increases in AI and robotic production could prevent those payments from fueling inflation.
Musk and other proponents of the burgeoning technology have tried to walk a curious tightrope, saying that it will be great for the economy but also will usher in the need for universal income due to the massive unemployment caused by the displacement of human workers.
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