Q3 2026 survey reveals weaker economic expectations, elevated recession concerns, more selective underwriting practices, and continued borrower investment in growth initiatives.
The Q3 2026 J.S. Held Lending Climate in America survey finds US lenders are becoming increasingly cautious as geopolitical instability, recession concerns, and broader economic uncertainty intensify. Survey respondents reported weaker expectations for both near-term and long-term economic performance, continued selectivity in underwriting larger loans, and heightened focus on risk management. At the same time, borrowers continue to pursue growth initiatives, including product development, capital investment, market expansion, and hiring, creating a lending environment characterized by both opportunity and increased discipline.
NEW YORK, Sept. 3, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Global consulting firm J.S. Held today published the results of its Q3 2026 Lending Climate in America survey, offering insight into how US lenders are assessing economic conditions, credit risk, borrower activity, and market expectations. The latest findings point to a lending environment marked by growing caution. Concerns regarding geopolitical instability, recession risk, and policy uncertainty remain elevated, while lender expectations for both near-term and longer-term economic performance have weakened. Despite this more guarded outlook, borrowers continue to pursue investment and expansion initiatives, highlighting a notable disconnect between lender sentiment and borrower activity.
The Q3 2026 J.S. Held Lending Climate in America survey finds US lenders turning more cautious: the near-term US economic performance grade fell to 1.96 from 2.26, and the long-term grade to 2.04 from 2.33. Geopolitical risk/war (39.9%) and US recession (30.4%) led near-term concerns, Financial Services topped volatility expectations, and 56% of lenders plan to maintain loan structures while borrowers continue investing in new products, capital, markets, and hiring.
To review the complete findings from the Q3 2026 J.S. Held Lending Climate in America survey, visit: https://www.jsheld.com/insights/articles/lending-climate-in-america.
Lenders Grow More Cautious About the Economic Outlook
The survey found a meaningful decline in lender expectations for both the next six months and the period beyond. Weighted average economic outlook scores fell from Q2 levels, while the percentage of respondents assigning below-average grades to the US economy increased across both time horizons. Recession concerns also remained among the most frequently cited risks affecting the economy.
“The Q3 results indicate lenders are approaching the market with a heightened awareness of downside risk,” said J.S. Held Senior Managing Director and Strategic Advisory Practice Lead, Michael Jacoby. “While capital remains available for well-positioned borrowers, lenders are placing greater emphasis on disciplined underwriting, liquidity strength, and resilience in uncertain economic conditions. The survey suggests that risk management has become as important as growth in current lending decisions.”
