Scottish voters are split over whether an independence referendum should be held next year according to a new poll that suggests the country remains locked in a constitutional stalemate.
A Panelbase poll for The Sunday Times suggests that 44 per cent of voters oppose Nicola Sturgeon’s desire to stage a referendum in October 2023, with 43 per cent in favour. Ten per cent said they neither supported or opposed a referendum and 3 per cent said they did not know.
On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.
The survey reveals widespread belief that Boris Johnson, the prime minister, will block a referendum next year, with more than three quarters of voters (76 per cent) expressing this view. In answer to a separate question, however, almost half (46 per cent) said they believed that he should allow a referendum to go ahead.
As Sturgeon prepares to launch a grassroots campaign for a second referendum, her depute leader, Keith Brown, said the poll demonstrated growing momentum in the Yes campaign.
“With support for independence growing to a narrow lead and only a minority opposed to a referendum next year, this poll underlines that it is people in Scotland who have the democratic right to determine our own future — and not Boris Johnson.”
Last week Sturgeon seized the initiative by approaching the UK’s highest court to rule on the legality of holding a vote without Westminster’s permission. Dorothy Bain QC, the lord advocate, has asked the Supreme Court to establish whether the Scottish government has the legal powers to stage a consultative referendum on its own.
According to the Panelbase poll of 1,010 voters, conducted last week, 48 per cent believe that the Supreme Court, presided over by the Scottish judge Lord Reed, will rule that the Scottish government does not have the power to hold a referendum without the UK government’s agreement, with 33 per cent believing the judges would find in the Scottish government’s favour. Nineteen per cent said they did not know or preferred not to say.
Sturgeon has warned that if the court rules that Holyrood cannot push ahead without the UK government’s approval, she will turn the next general election into a “de facto” referendum. It means that the SNP will regard the winning of a majority of votes as a mandate to negotiate directly with Westminster for independence.
The Panelbase poll indicates that in such a scenario, the SNP could gain as much as 47 per cent of the vote, within touching distance of the 50 per cent target the party believes would be needed to begin independence negotiations.
The threshold could be reached when votes for other independence parties are taken into account.
SNP strategists believe Sturgeon’s pledge to hold a referendum next year has wrong-footed opponents, enthused party activists and reinvigorated wavering supporters.
However, one Conservative MP said: “It was novel and took us by surprise, but 15 minutes in, it just didn’t look as clever as it first appeared. It’s all smoke and mirrors, and the fundamentals haven’t changed. Few serious people, even among SNP MPs, believe there will be a referendum next year.”
Donald Cameron, the Scottish Conservative’s constitutional spokesman, said: “The SNP government needs to focus on the key challenges facing the country, the global cost-of-living crisis and soaring NHS waiting times, instead of splitting the population with a reckless push to break up the UK.”
Sarah Boyack, the Labour MSP, said: “The focus of all Scotland’s politicians must be on re-building the NHS, our economy, our public services and tackling our climate crisis.”
The poll found that 33 per cent of Scots — up 10 percentage points since November — believe Scotland is likely to become independent within the next five years, with a further 17 per cent — down 6 points since November — believing the country is likely to become independent within five to ten years.
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Scottish voters are split over whether an independence referendum should be held next year according to a new poll that suggests the country remains locked in a constitutional stalemate.
A Panelbase poll for The Sunday Times suggests that 44 per cent of voters oppose Nicola Sturgeon’s desire to stage a referendum in October 2023, with 43 per cent in favour. Ten per cent said they neither supported or opposed a referendum and 3 per cent said they did not know.
On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know.
The survey reveals widespread belief that Boris Johnson, the prime minister, will block a referendum next year, with more than three quarters of voters (76 per cent) expressing this view. In answer to a separate question, however, almost half (46 per cent) said they believed that he should allow a referendum to go ahead.
As Sturgeon prepares to launch a grassroots campaign for a second referendum, her depute leader, Keith Brown, said the poll demonstrated growing momentum in the Yes campaign.
“With support for independence growing to a narrow lead and only a minority opposed to a referendum next year, this poll underlines that it is people in Scotland who have the democratic right to determine our own future — and not Boris Johnson.”
Last week Sturgeon seized the initiative by approaching the UK’s highest court to rule on the legality of holding a vote without Westminster’s permission. Dorothy Bain QC, the lord advocate, has asked the Supreme Court to establish whether the Scottish government has the legal powers to stage a consultative referendum on its own.
According to the Panelbase poll of 1,010 voters, conducted last week, 48 per cent believe that the Supreme Court, presided over by the Scottish judge Lord Reed, will rule that the Scottish government does not have the power to hold a referendum without the UK government’s agreement, with 33 per cent believing the judges would find in the Scottish government’s favour. Nineteen per cent said they did not know or preferred not to say.
Sturgeon has warned that if the court rules that Holyrood cannot push ahead without the UK government’s approval, she will turn the next general election into a “de facto” referendum. It means that the SNP will regard the winning of a majority of votes as a mandate to negotiate directly with Westminster for independence.
The Panelbase poll indicates that in such a scenario, the SNP could gain as much as 47 per cent of the vote, within touching distance of the 50 per cent target the party believes would be needed to begin independence negotiations.
The threshold could be reached when votes for other independence parties are taken into account.
SNP strategists believe Sturgeon’s pledge to hold a referendum next year has wrong-footed opponents, enthused party activists and reinvigorated wavering supporters.
However, one Conservative MP said: “It was novel and took us by surprise, but 15 minutes in, it just didn’t look as clever as it first appeared. It’s all smoke and mirrors, and the fundamentals haven’t changed. Few serious people, even among SNP MPs, believe there will be a referendum next year.”
Donald Cameron, the Scottish Conservative’s constitutional spokesman, said: “The SNP government needs to focus on the key challenges facing the country, the global cost-of-living crisis and soaring NHS waiting times, instead of splitting the population with a reckless push to break up the UK.”
Sarah Boyack, the Labour MSP, said: “The focus of all Scotland’s politicians must be on re-building the NHS, our economy, our public services and tackling our climate crisis.”
The poll found that 33 per cent of Scots — up 10 percentage points since November — believe Scotland is likely to become independent within the next five years, with a further 17 per cent — down 6 points since November — believing the country is likely to become independent within five to ten years.
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