Negotiations between Syria and Israel over a potential security agreement appear closer to paralysis than resolution. Points of contention have expanded well beyond basic military and border arrangements, now encompassing fundamental disputes over the future structure and deployment of the Syrian military, Turkey’s strategic footprint, the status of southern Syria, and Israel’s continued freedom of aerial operation.
Complicating matters further, Israel’s parliamentary elections on 27 October 2026 significantly raise the political cost of any territorial withdrawal or concession for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. At the same time, Washington is working to prevent rising tensions between Damascus and Tel Aviv from escalating into a broader confrontation involving Turkey.
Failed Talks, Active Channels
The latest sign of stalled negotiations came from a senior Israeli political source quoted by Walla, who said efforts to finalize a security deal with Syria “did not succeed.” The source added that the Israeli government sees no reason to withdraw from the buffer zone established after the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, describing the area as a vital security asset.
Despite the absence of a formal agreement, communication between the two sides has not collapsed. The source confirmed that active channels remain open, with dialogue continuing at specific levels to safeguard Israeli security interests.
Concurrently, a Syrian source close to decision-making circles told i24NEWS that Damascus will not sign any security arrangement while Netanyahu remains prime minister. Both sides appear to acknowledge that formalizing a deal is unlikely before the Israeli elections.
A central dynamic complicating the talks is a divergence in perspective between Washington and Tel Aviv. The Trump administration views Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa as a practical partner who must be stabilized and insulated from conflict. Influential elements within the Israeli establishment, however, regard the new Syrian administration as a deferred threat whose growing military capacity must be contained.
Points of Friction
Several critical issues lie at the heart of the impasse:
The Buffer Zone and Mount Hermon
Israel refuses to commit to withdrawing from positions entered in late 2024, altering an initial U.S. proposal for a phased pullout matched by Syrian troop reductions in the south. Defense Minister Israel Katz has stated that Israeli forces will not withdraw from Mount Hermon or the designated security zone as long as perceived threats persist.
Rebuilding the Syrian Military
Israel is closely monitoring the restructuring of the Syrian armed forces, particularly military cooperation with Ankara. Israeli officials fear Syria could acquire advanced air defenses and drone capabilities that would restrict Israeli aerial operations. While Israel treats Syrian military sizing and alliances as subjects for negotiation, Damascus insists that rebuilding state institutions is a sovereign right that cannot be bargained away.
The Turkish Dimension
Israel views Ankara’s expanding role in Syria as a primary strategic concern. Fears that Turkey could deploy radar systems, air defenses, or establish permanent bases contributed to Israel’s airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Idlib on 18 August. Although both Damascus and Ankara denied plans for a permanent Turkish base—clarifying that activity at the site involved rehabilitation and training—the strike underscored the fragility of current security arrangements.
U.S.-mediated meetings in Jordan between Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shaibani and Mossad Chief Roman Gofman sought to manage tensions following the Abu al-Duhur incident, confirming that Turkish influence remains a central element in the security dialogue.
Electoral Calculations
Israel’s upcoming election introduces significant domestic constraints. Any withdrawal from Mount Hermon or the buffer zone before the vote would expose Netanyahu to sharp criticism from right-wing rivals. As a result, substantial Israeli concessions before 27 October remain unlikely.
From Damascus’s perspective, securing a comprehensive agreement before the election is equally improbable. Syrian officials emphasize that diplomatic channels remain open, but maintain that lasting stability requires an end to unilateral military strikes, noting that previous understandings were undermined by repeated violations.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.