By Alexander J. Schorr

(San Diego) — The 2026 El Niño is rapidly developing into a historic “Super El Niño,” with meteorologists warning that it could even be the strongest on record since 1950. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports a 90% chance of a “very strong” event lasting through the fall and winter of 2026, with a 69% probability that equatorial Pacific ocean temperatures will shatter past records of more than 2.5°C above average.

Map image above via NOAA shows typical impacts of El Niño to continental U.S. and Canada during winter

Since the severe climate cycle is compounding existing global warming, the New York Times reports, scientists warn that it will act as a “systemic shock” to global infrastructure, food security, and coastal economies

This El Niño is forming in the equatorial Pacific at the same time that geopolitical conflicts are disrupting energy, fertilizer, shipping, and agricultural markets. The combination creates a credible risk of additional food-price pressure in the United States and abroad.

Contributing Physical and Economic Factors

Being called a “perfect storm,” the rapidly growing 2026-2027 El Niño poses concerns as well. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center currently reports that the El Niño is increasing gives a greater-than-90% probability of a strong El Niño in the fall and winter of the Northern Hemisphere. NOAA estimates a 69% probability that the October and November 2026 season will reach its historic-event threshold of at least +2.5°C in the three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) — among the strongest El Niño recorded since 1950.

Oxford Economics has projected an increase in its global food-price index during 2026, reflecting the combined effects of geopolitical disruptions and extreme weather. A study by Oxford Economics, which warns that the stresses amid geopolitical conflicts and extreme weather is driving a 12% spike in global food prices for 2026. The US Department of Agriculture’s August 2026 forecast currently projects that US food prices will rise approximately 3.0% overall in 2026, including 2.5% for food purchased at grocery stores and 3.6% for food purchased away from home. These effects can be especially significant when they occur simultaneously within weather-related interruptions.

Russia and Ukraine remain major participants in global agricultural markets. Together, they have historically accounted for about 30% of global wheat exports, making the Black Sea region especially important for international food security.

The ongoing war has repeatedly disrupted ports, shipping routes, and agricultural infrastructure, with recent attacks on Black Sea grain infrastructure having already caused interruptions to shipping and added to higher wheat prices. While alternative suppliers such as Argentina, Australia, and North America can partially compensate for lost supplies, the primary concern is price volatility and uncertainty moving forward in the world markets

Also, there is also the conflict between the US and Iran, which has congested travel and shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz: because the waterway is vital for global agricultural inputs, there is concern that global fertilizer prices will surge by 22% this year, drastically increasing overhead costs for farmers worldwide.

Ultimately, the combination of war-related supply disruptions and an unusually strong El Niño represents a significant upside risk to existing food-price forecasts. This is the main economic concern: an unusually strong El Niño could amplify existing global food and supply-chain pressures, increasing the risk that commodity prices will rise faster and even more than what is currently expected.

The effect on American consumers will depend on how severe the weather becomes, how long geopolitical disruptions continue, how global agricultural markets adapt, and how much of the increase in commodity costs is passed through retailers and consumers.

The international agricultural effects of El Niño can be substantial because the phenomenon alters rainfall and temperature patterns. Historically, El Niño has been associated with drought in parts of Southeast Asia and Australia and altered precipitation patterns elsewhere, with such changes can affect crops including rice, wheat, coffee, sugar, and vegetable oils.

Nonetheless, the precise agricultural effects cannot yet be known for certain— crop losses will depend on where drought or excessive rainfall actually develops, how long those conditions persist, and how agricultural markets respond.

Key Global Risks & Systemic Concerns

A rare, dangerous convergence is happening on the US West Coast. The Super El Niño is arriving at the peak of an 18-year natural high-tide (King Tides), and compounded by a sea-level rise, offshore ocean levels in California are increasing up to a foot higher than average. Pacific storms are projected to generate 30% to 50% more wave energy, threatening an additional $60 billion in coastal property.

Severe droughts are already impacting the Pacific Northwest, where irrigation shortages have cost Idaho farmers $20 million. Globally, prolonged droughts are expected to lower river basins, threatening hydropower production in developing nations and mirroring past crises that crippled entire national grids.

Humanitarian organizations like Direct Relief are preparing for severe health spikes. Flooding in the Americas and shifting climate boundaries in places like East Africa are historically linked to severe malaria and dengue outbreaks following El Niño precipitation patterns.

While El Niño is currently warping 2026 weather patterns, the heat trapped in the Pacific takes time to release into the atmosphere, and because of this lag, climate scientists broadly expect 2027 to become the hottest year in human history.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has released its preliminary winter projections, outlining stark contrasts across the US:

 

The Southern Tier and the East Coast: It is expected to be much wetter than average, with heavy rainfall, active storm tracks, with concerns of severe flash flooding, destructive landslides, and coastal erosion.
Northern Tier and the Rockies: Warmer than usual winter, with significantly reduced snowpack. There may be worsening multi-year droughts, early wildfire seasons, and ecological stress on fish.
The Atlantic Basin: Strong upper-level wind shear in addition to a potential rare positive benefit in the form of suppressed late-season hurricane development.

 

El Niños tend to favor increased precipitation across portions of the southern US during the winter, although the exact temperature and precipitation patterns vary by location and season, where some areas of the southern tier can experience cooler and wetter conditions while others may see relatively mild temperatures. El Niño frequently produces warmer and drier winter conditions across portions of the northern US and the Pacific Northwest.

The upcoming months are critical for localized planning, with local governments and enterprise risk managers currently stress-testing power grids, agricultural supply chains, and emergency flood logistics. The next definitive ENSO Diagnostics Update will be released by NOAA on September 10, 2026, followed by an anticipated US Winter Forecast in October, which will provide precise regional precipitation probabilities.

The Impact on California

The El Niño affects different parts of the US in various ways, and its effects are mostly probabilistic rather than uniform.

The 2026 Super El Niño is projected to deal a major economic shock to California in particular, with experts warning that it could rank among the costliest on record to a destructive mix of infrastructure damage and severe agricultural disruptions. Since California grows over a third of the country’s vegetables and three-quarters of its fruits and nuts, the incoming winter storms could certainly add to massive agricultural volatility.

California historically has consistent encounters with El Niño precipitation, especially in Southern California, and a strong El Niño can increase the potential for winter storms and periods of heavy rainfall. Along the coast, El Niño-related changes in ocean conditions can also combine with high tides, large waves, sea-level rise, and winter storms to increase coastal flooding and erosion risks.

The primary agricultural threat stems from the intense, shifted winter storm track expected to drop heavy rain at lower elevations. There are potential concerns:

 

Vulnerable Winter Crops: Fall-planted and winter-harvested crops are at immediate risk of rot and field flooding. The most exposed California categories include tomatoes, bell peppers, cauliflower, broccoli, celery, snap beans, and green onions.
Delayed Spring Planting: Extending saturated fields from a wet winter means heavy machinery that cannot get onto the soil in early 2027. This will compress or completely delay the spring planting schedules for lucrative crops like strawberries and leafy greens.
Fungal Disease Outbreaks: Prolonged high humidity and unusually warm coastal temperatures create a breeding ground for mildew, root rot, and fungal pathogens which can reduce crop yields and drive up growers’ input costs for chemical treatments.
Tree and Nut Crops Stress: While rain replenishes aquifers, excessive winter saturation can suffocate the root systems of almond, walnut, and pistachio trees, leading to lower yields that take multiple seasons to recover.
Supply Chains and Transit Bottlenecks: Beyond the fields, the extreme weather shifts financial burdens onto the state’s broader infrastructure. Towering waves, coastal erosion, and localized flooding are projected to shut down crucial transportation arteries like Pacific Coast Highway (PCH) and major rail corridors. This delays the movement of goods from California’s major ports.
Escalating Food Prices for Consumers: Reduced local yields, combined with skyrocketing global commodity prices for staples hit by El Niño droughts elsewhere— such as sugar, cocoa, and rice— are expected to drive up retail grocery bills by an estimated 9% over the coming months.
A Paradoxical Water Supply: The storm track will fill state reservoirs and boost water allocations for growers. However, this is potentially offset by the multi-million-dollar structural costs of managing immediate flood mitigation, land erosion, and levee maintenance. Heavy rainfalls can also place more demands on drainage systems, roads, bridges, levees, dams, power infrastructure, and emergency shelters, and as a result, municipalities may have to divert resources towards debris removal, emergency response, and flood mitigation rather than longer-term infrastructure projects.

 

Ultimately, the combination of geopolitical disruption and extreme weather can place additional pressure and hardships on the US economy, with the most important factors involving food affordability, disaster preparedness, insurance, and monetary policy.

Low-income households are particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions amid this climate change because food represents a much larger share of their budgets. According to USDA data, households in the lowest quintile spent an average of 33.0% of their before-tax income on food in 2024, compared with 12.2% for middle-income households and 6.4% for households in the highest income quintile.

Consequently, even moderate increases in food prices can place disproportionate pressure on lower-income households. Retail prices are affected by factors like transportation, labor, processing, inventories, contracts, consumer demand, and domestic agricultural production.

Emergency Preparedness

The possibility of a wetter-than-normal winter provides a good reason for residents to prepare for potential power outages, flooding, and transportation interruptions.

Build a Go-Bag and Emergency Supply Kit. Keep essential supplies in a waterproof container or easily accessible location. Recommended supplies include:

 

Copies of important identification and insurance documents stored in a waterproof bag.
Portage power banks.
Flashlights and extra batteries.
A battery-powered or hand-crank emergency radio.
At least one gallon of water per person per day for at least three days.
Several days of essential medications.
Basic first-aid supplies.
Necessary food that does not require refrigeration.

 

Prepare the Property before the rainy season:

 

Lean gutters and downspouts
Remove debris from drainage areas.
Make sure water can drain away from the home’s foundations.
Inspect retaining walls for visible cracks or drainage problems.
Secure loose outdoor objects.
If the property is near a hillside, drainage channel, creek, or flood-prone area, evaluate its specific risks before a major storm arrives. Sandbags can be useful in certain situations, but residents should verify current availability and pickup locations with their city or county rather than assuming that a particular fire station will provide them.

 

Sign Up for Emergency Alerts and Check Your Insurance. Residents of San Diego County should register for official emergency notifications through the county’s emergency-alert system and monitor official weather and emergency-management sources during major storms.

Flood insurance deserves particular attention because standard homeowners’ insurance generally does not cover flood damage. The California Department of Insurance states that homeowners’ and commercial policies typically exclude flood, mudslide, debris flow, and similar disasters.

It also notes that homeowners’ insurance can cover some other forms of storm-related water damage, such as certain damage caused by wind-driven rain, depending on the policy:

The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is administered by FEMA and provides federally backed flood insurance through participating insurers. For a standard single-family residential property, NFIP coverage generally provides up to $250,000 for the building and up to $100,000 for personal property.

New NFIP policies generally have a 30-day waiting period. However, there are important exceptions, including certain mortgage-related purchases, some flood map changes, and specific post-wildfire circumstances. Therefore, residents should not immediately assume that purchasing a policy immediately before a forecast storm will provide the necessary coverage for a disaster event.

Private Insurers also offer flood policies outside NFIP. Private policies may provide higher limits or different coverage options than the NFIP, but their terms, premiums, exclusions, deductibles, and waiting period periods will vary.

Residents should also check their property’s specific flood exposure using official mapping tools. The FEMA Flood Map Service Center can identify federally designated flood-risk areas.

Additionally, California’s Department of Water Resources also provides extra information and mapping resources that can help identify risks that may not be fully represented by traditional FEMA flood maps.