As Germany and France falter, Italy and Poland are emerging as Europe’s new engines of growth, identity and security.
The balance of power is tilting toward Southern and Central Europe. Poland and Italy are filling the gap left by Germany and France. © GIS – This cartoon is available for sale in our shop.
The power dynamics within the European Union are changing. For many years, the Franco-German axis was the principal driver of European integration and of the continent’s economic and political progress. Following a prolonged period of tension that produced several wars, the friendship between Germany and France became fundamental to Europe’s success after World War II.
Integration was never only an economic project; it was also a process for securing peace. The developments were gradual and ultimately successful. Today the union comprises 27 members.
The problem now is that, for various reasons – mainly related to internal social, economic and security policies – Europe’s two largest economies have become dysfunctional. Both Germany and France face serious political and economic crises, though to different degrees. As a result, the center of gravity is now shifting to Southern and Central Europe, and not surprisingly, Poland and Italy are gaining influence. While this is good news, it does not offset the problems in Germany and France.
The rise of Poland and Italy benefits Europe as a whole. The weakness of Germany and France is regrettable, yet the resulting pluralism is itself an asset.
Rome and Warsaw take on more weight
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is one of the clearest success stories in European leadership. She heads the most stable government Italy has known in 80 years. The economy is improving relative to much of the rest of Europe, and there is a renewed emphasis on national and regional identity. School reforms are revealing: Mobile phones are being banned in classrooms, and the curriculum is again placing greater emphasis on the country’s own history and regional character. Unlike in many other European countries, the question of identity is being addressed rather than deferred.
Regional identity should not be confused with nationalism. Identification with one’s home region is a strongly positive force in society. Italy still has economic problems, but it is improving. One effective measure has been a flat-tax regime for newly self-employed people and small businesses. It is already showing results, though the fuller effects will appear over the medium and long term. It is a simple but important step.
For the first time in decades, the risk premium on Italian bonds stands on par with that on French bonds. Whether this reflects Italian fiscal improvement or French deterioration is debatable. Prime Minister Meloni, while remaining firmly European, also emphasizes her identity as a woman, mother, Italian and Christian.
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Poland, with nearly 40 million people, has become an economic powerhouse. It has the highest gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in Europe, estimated at 3.5 percent for 2026. The people are hardworking, and the country encourages entrepreneurship by placing fewer restrictions on business than many other EU states. Its debt level is moderate, allowing Poland to look optimistically to the future.
History and geography have also given Poland a clear view of Europe’s security risks. The country is strengthening its armed forces and, at the same time, its deterrence and the protection of its civilian population. While this protection is just the initial step, there is a strong political will and public consensus regarding its necessity.
The rise of Poland and Italy benefits Europe as a whole. The weakness of Germany and France is regrettable, yet the resulting pluralism is itself an asset: It provides a healthy balance against centralizing tendencies within the EU.
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