On August 29, Iceland narrowly rejected a proposal to restart negotiations for European Union membership, choosing to maintain its current relationship with Europe while geopolitical concerns continue to grow in the North Atlantic. U.S. President Donald Trump was an underlying factor, as votes came in at 52.8% to 47.2% since Trump repeatedly threatened to take control of Greenland, raising questions about Iceland and its security.
The referendum was not necessarily a vote to immediately join the European Union. It was pushed up due to a change in political circumstances. Voters were asked a yes-or-no question: “Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?” A “yes” would have restarted negotiations with the European Commission. Iceland’s chief economist Vilhajmur Hilmarsson stated, “It would not solve Iceland’s structural faults, but it could become a catalyst to a more healthy economy,”
Iceland’s vote was not intended to be anti-European, but rather pro-sovereignty. Iceland has a significant fishing industry that is both culturally and economically important. Many feared European Union membership could weaken Iceland’s control over its own waters, potentially losing control over one of its biggest economic factors, as Iceland would have to participate in the EU’s common fisheries policy. Voters argued Iceland was too split up, with Daniel Bjarkason saying, “It should be 70-30 ‘Yes’ if we’re going to do it.” Referendum results show the issue is more complicated than choosing between independence and European integration. While protecting Iceland’s fishing industry is a valid concern, the increasingly unstable environment makes people wonder how much independence a small country can afford before economic and international components begin to weaken.
Iceland did apply for European Union membership in 2009, but negotiations were suspended while under a eurosceptic government years later. Iceland is already closely involved in many European affairs, through the European Economic Area and Schengen. This means Iceland receives economic and travel benefits associated with European integration without having to be a full EU member. It is also a member of NATO and has been a longtime United States ally. Trump has expressed interest in control of Greenland, which causes concern about whether or not Iceland would be next. Iceland is not currently in direct conflict with the United States; however, Trump has made many statements that continue to create uncertainty around the relationship between the two countries.
Iceland’s close margin of the vote highlights the division between citizens regarding the EU and whether it will benefit the country’s economic security. With Trump’s continued interest in Greenland, Iceland may face pressure to reconsider how it balances independence and international cooperation. While voters have chosen to keep the country’s current position, the changing political environment could make that difficult to sustain in the future.