Apple (AAPL) Could Be 26% Overvalued Following Its September 9 Product Event

Apple (AAPL) heads into its 9 September product event with investors focused on how the iPhone 18 lineup and first foldable iPhone might absorb higher component costs, pricing shifts, and reported supply constraints.

Apple’s share price has eased 2.5% over the last session to $319.97, yet the 90 day share price return of 6.11% and year to date share price return of 18.07% point to building positive momentum as investors weigh the upcoming product launch, new CEO, and mixed headlines on supply constraints and litigation. Over longer horizons, the 1 year total shareholder return of 33.99% and 5 year total shareholder return of 120.21% show how recent price moves fit within a much stronger multi year run.

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Bulls see Apple’s recent share price strength and upcoming iPhone cycle as proof the premium and AI story still holds. Bears point to higher costs, supply risks, and new legal overhangs. Which case do current valuation signals lean toward next?

Most Popular Narrative: 26% Overvalued

Apple’s last close at $319.97 sits well above the narrative fair value of $253.43, which frames the current product cycle against a richer starting point for the stock.

It is mostly for this reason I bought stock many famous folks have sold, but this experience tells me they are far, far away from done; they are just getting started, and I am looking seriously forward to what “they” do with the AI experience. In my opinion this alone was enough to buy, but there were other inputs from SWS indicating this is just logical at this time. Very logical indeed.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what sits behind that confidence in Apple? The narrative leans heavily on robust profit margins and a rich future earnings multiple. Curious how those inputs combine to justify a fair value that trails the current share price by a wide gap.

Result: Fair Value of $253.43 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, Apple’s narrative could be challenged if higher component costs squeeze those profit margins, or if reported supply constraints limit how much demand actually converts to sales.

Find out about the key risks to this Apple narrative.

Next Steps

With Apple’s story pulling in strong opinions on both sides, it makes sense to move quickly and stress test the numbers yourself. Start by reviewing the 2 key rewards

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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