Gintaras Ažubalis says that the capabilities of the German brigade are more than ten times greater than those of the allied forces previously stationed here.
“This is no longer a single battalion, as it was before, but five battalions, roughly speaking: three combat battalions, two support battalions and many other units that form an integral, organic part of the brigade. But I would like to emphasise that, over time, there will be more here, because the Germans will not send just one brigade. There will be air-defence elements and so on. This is a very, very serious capability,” the reserve colonel says.
The German Army’s 45th Armoured Brigade, comprising three manoeuvre battalions and all the necessary enablers, including combat-support and sustainment units, is being permanently relocated to Lithuania.
Around 5,000 German military personnel and civilian employees will be transferred to Lithuania, serving in Rukla, Pabradė and other military facilities. They will also bring approximately 2,000 pieces of military equipment with them.
“It is a heavy brigade, which is also extremely important. Despite all our internal discussions, that element remains as fundamental to warfare and NATO doctrine as it has always been. Redeploying it would be technically quite difficult if urgent reinforcements were required. The fact that the heavy element is being stationed here — and that we will soon have one of our own as well — is very good,” says the former Lithuanian defence attaché in Germany.
“We are moving into an entirely different security league,” says Laurynas Kasčiūnas, deputy chair of the Seimas Committee on National Security and Defence and a former minister of national defence.
According to him, when the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, NATO adopted the principle of forward defence.
“I think the Latvians and especially the Estonians are slightly envious of us because, for the time being, they do not have this kind of architecture in their planning. We are leading the way here. This is precisely the result and consequence of the decisions made in 2022–2023. <…> With the brigade’s relocation, this effectively doubles the military presence in Lithuania.
We should bear in mind that the brigade can operate autonomously, but, in principle, the German brigade will be an integral part of even larger forces based in Germany. For example, it will form part of a German division whose assigned forces, under NATO’s new-generation defence plans, would operate in the defence of Lithuania and our region. In other words, if you asked me which ally would play the largest role in Lithuania’s defence in the event of aggression, the answer would, of course, be Germany, and it is now developing its land forces,” L. Kasčiūnas explains.
A Message to Russia
According to G. Ažubalis, the brigade’s permanent deployment in Lithuania sends Russia a message about the unity of the Alliance. He says Germany’s decisions are no coincidence either.
“Let us not forget that the brigade is just 30 kilometres from the border, as is Vilnius. I do not think it is a coincidence that the Germans chose this particular location rather than somewhere that would be more convenient for them from a technical perspective, such as Rukla. It is, after all, a difficult location and a highly risky one in military terms,” the reserve colonel says.
“From a military perspective, the Russians remember the Germans very well and know them perfectly well, despite all the difficulties that every European country is generally experiencing. We are seeing more and more positive signs in Germany regarding its military — the Bundeswehr. The good news is that they have finally managed to cross that threshold in terms of staffing. The trends are positive, not negative. For the first time, the size of the Bundeswehr has exceeded 180,000 troops, and its ambitions are high. I have no doubt that Germany will become not only an economic and political power in Europe, but also a military power,” G. Ažubalis says.
He says that, in the event of an enemy attack, German forces would begin defending Lithuania immediately.
“Those who are here will receive their orders, and the fighting here will begin from the first minute, for the very first inch, as planned. I have no doubt about that whatsoever. And if someone has doubts, there is nothing that can be done about it. Speaking purely as a soldier, I can reassure you once again: I have no doubts here. If, God forbid, that day dawns, we will all be in formation, and I trust them completely,” the reserve colonel insists.
It is also emphasised that Germany’s intelligence capabilities will be employed in Lithuania.
“With the arrival of the Germans, we will see even more and hear even more. In other words, Germany’s entire intelligence apparatus will be concentrated here, both through its technical means and its personnel and capabilities, because it is very important to them that the brigade does not become a target of provocations here. They will certainly be working very seriously here.
We should also bear in mind that some troops are arriving with their families, and some will live in Vilnius and Kaunas. You settle here; this is a long-term presence. Psychologically, this becomes territory where your own citizens are present. That is very important because of the entire psychological dimension — if necessary, they will defend it, because their citizens are here too,” L. Kasčiūnas says.
An Alternative to U.S. Troops
L. Kasčiūnas says that the current political situation in Germany is favourable to Lithuania and to the deployment of the brigade.
“We now have [Friedrich] Merz as chancellor and [Boris] Pistorius as minister. I believe I have described them in the press as probably the best possible tandem for our region and for Lithuania that Germany could have today. Of course, Germany’s political system is highly dynamic; we know what is happening on the right and what views exist there, but, for now, I certainly do not see any possibility of them taking control of the Bundestag in the next federal election. In any event, that is their affair.
But what we have now — this symbiosis between the chancellor and the defence minister, a truly excellent defence minister with whom I have also had many opportunities to speak — gives us a genuinely excellent opportunity,” L. Kasčiūnas says.
According to the politician, investment in Germany’s armed forces, the Bundeswehr, is also important.
“Where they were ten years ago and where they are now are incomparable. And where will they be in another ten years? Huge sums are now being [allocated] to satellites and to strengthening intelligence capabilities. And because they will be here, we will share in all of that as well,” the interviewee points out.
Moreover, he recalls that questions remain unanswered about whether U.S. troops will be stationed in Lithuania.
“The apocalypse has not happened yet; I think the Americans are staying here. But if they withdraw somewhat, in one way or another, we must nevertheless bear in mind that Germany’s presence here is the best possible alternative, because this is inevitable given the full scale of its capabilities.
Germany is the only country that can compensate for what the United States provides to NATO in Europe. Only the Germans can do that, with all due respect to our neighbours, whose capabilities are also growing — but Germany is Germany, because its GDP is €3.5 trillion. Considering what Germany can put together for the defence of Europe as a whole, our partnership with Germany is a truly wonderful thing,” L. Kasčiūnas says.