The European Central Bank’s policy rate announcement and President Lagarde’s press conference will be the primary focus of financial markets on the 10th. Markets expect the policy rate to be cut from 2.65% to 2.40%, and investors will parse the statement and the president’s remarks for clues about the future pace of rate cuts.

In Japan, portfolio investment flows (outward and inward, for the prior week) will be released in the morning. At 10:30 a.m., Bank of Japan Policy Board member Yuki Masujima will attend a financial and economic forum in Fukui Prefecture, followed by a press conference. Market participants will be watching for any comments on the Bank of Japan’s policy stance.

Among overseas indicators, Germany’s August Consumer Price Index will be released first. The market consensus is 2.9% year-over-year. From Brazil, the FIPE consumer price index (prior week) and IBGE services sector sales (July) will also be published.

Among emerging markets, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey will announce its policy rate. Markets expect the rate to be held steady at 37.00%.

In the United States, several key indicators are clustered together. At 9:30 p.m. JST, initial jobless claims (prior week) and the August Producer Price Index will be released simultaneously. The market consensus for PPI is 5.2% year-over-year, an acceleration from the previous reading of 4.7%. If the data signals a resurgence of inflationary pressure, it could influence the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy.

At 11:00 p.m. JST, the final reading of July wholesale inventories and August existing home sales will be published. Existing home sales are expected to decline 1.6% month-over-month, a slight narrowing from the previous -1.7%. The key question is whether the data confirms that the housing market is bottoming out.

Additionally, the OPEC monthly report is scheduled for release, and any changes to crude oil supply-demand projections could sway energy prices.

Key indicators, market expectations, and prior readings are as follows:

Time (JST)IndicatorMarket ExpectationPrior Reading9:15 p.m.ECB Policy Rate2.40%2.65%9:30 p.m.U.S. PPI (August, YoY)5.2%4.7%9:30 p.m.U.S. Initial Jobless Claims205,000206,00011:00 p.m.U.S. Existing Home Sales (August, MoM)-1.6%-1.7%

Note: All times are Japan Standard Time. Market expectations are based on consensus estimates.

The ECB implemented a rate cut at its previous meeting, and if an additional cut materializes this time, it would mark two consecutive meetings with easing. Market attention has shifted away from the size of the cut itself toward the economic outlook and future policy stance that President Lagarde will articulate at her press conference. With eurozone inflation approaching target, whether the ECB clearly signals a priority on supporting economic growth will be a key determinant of the euro’s direction.

If U.S. PPI accelerates into the 5% range as expected, concerns about pass-through to consumer prices could put upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields. Meanwhile, if existing home sales continue to decline, the view that a prolonged housing market adjustment is weighing on the economy is likely to gain traction.