Florida Republican Senator Ashley Moody’s campaign team on Friday sent a “special election alert” email to supporters, warning her election battle with Democrat Angie Nixon is now a “dead heat,” according to two recent opinion polls.
If Nixon, currently a Florida state representative, can flip the seat formerly held by Marco Rubio, it would be a big win for the Democrats and their quest to seize control of the Senate at the November midterms. No Democrat has won statewide in Florida since 2018 and Republicans enjoy a big voter registration advantage.
In their email, the Moody campaign team wrote: “Two polls. Two dead heats. Trump-backed Ashley Moody is tied with Angie Nixon in the biggest Senate special election of 2026 – for the seat Marco Rubio held for fourteen years.”
The two surveys cited in the email, which found Moody and Nixon were near level pegging, were conducted by St. Pete Polls and Change Research.
New Polls
The St. Pete Polls survey of 913 likely Florida voters found Moody ahead by just 0.4 percentage points, with 45.2 percent against her Democratic challenger’s 44.8 percent. The poll was conducted from September 15 to 17 using automated telephone calls and peer-to-peer SMS messages and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
It showed Nixon leading with independents by 49.8 percent against 37.4 percent, and by voters aged 18 to 29 by 63.7 percent to 25.3 percent. By contrast, Moody was ahead with non-Hispanic white voters by 53.4 percent to 38.7 percent, and those aged 70 or older with 61.1 percent to 31.9 percent. These details should be treated with caution due to the small sample sizes once the survey was broken down by demographics.
Separately, Change Research surveyed 1,107 likely Florida voters for Freedom Project USA between September 7 and 9. This poll found Moody and Nixon were tied with 47 percent of the vote each, while President Trump had a net favorability rating of minus ten. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
MIAMI, FLORIDA – AUGUST 21: U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL) speaks to supporters as she campaigns at Sergio’s restaurant on August 21, 2026 in Miami, Florida. Moody is facing off against Democratic U.S. Senate candidate, Florida state Rep. Angie Nixon for the Florida Senate seat in the November 3rd election.
However, a separate Quantus Insights poll of 733 likely Florida voters put Moody ahead with 50 percent of the vote against 43 percent. This was conducted between September 8 and 10 and had a 4.1 percentage point margin of error.
Newsweek contacted the Moody and Nixon campaigns for comment on Saturday outside of regular office hours via online inquiry form and email respectively.
The recent tied polls are particularly notable as at the end of July Republicans had around 1.5 million more voters registered in Florida than Democrats, whilst Trump won the state by 13 points in 2024. Republican Senate candidates outperformed their Democratic rivals by 12.8 percent in 2024 and 16.4 percent in 2022.
Despite the recent polling lead, Moody remains the firm favorite according to election analysis website Decision Desk HQ, which gives her a 78 percent probability of victory.
A RealClearPolling average of recent surveys gives Moody a five-point lead, with 48.3 percent of the vote against 43.3 percent for Nixon.
Primary Shock
Moody was appointed to the Senate in January 2025 by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis occupying the seat formerly held by Rubio, Trump’s pick for Secretary of State.
Nixon defeated Alexander Vindman, a retired army lieutenant colonel, to secure the Democratic nomination to challenge Moody at a primary election on August 18. This was a major upset, with Vindman significantly outspending Nixon, a social democrat, in the contest.
Currently, there are 53 Republican Senators versus 47 who caucus with the Democrats. Losing the Senate in November would significantly impede Trump’s freedom of action in the final two years of his term.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Daniel Orton and Cristina Diciu.
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