United Russia is on course to retain a two-thirds constitutional majority in the State Duma after Russia’s first parliamentary election since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a three-day vote conducted under wartime conditions as Ukrainian attacks left at least eight people dead across the country and Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine during the voting.
With 50.03 per cent of polling station protocols processed early on Monday, President Vladimir Putin’s ruling party had 57.87 per cent of the party list vote, ahead of the Communists on 13.79 per cent, LDPR on 8.80, New People on 7.86 and A Just Russia on 5.11. Earlier CEC data showed United Russia leading in 181 of the 225 single member constituencies; combined with its projected list seats, that put it above the 301 seat threshold required for a constitutional majority. It won 324 seats in 2021.
‘The partial results show United Russia significantly stronger than the exit polls’
The partial results show United Russia significantly stronger than the exit polls. VCIOM put Putin’s party at 49.4 per cent, while InSOMAR put it at 52.8 per cent. United Russia’s share has remained broadly stable as counting has progressed, moving from 57.54 per cent after 13.88 per cent of protocols were processed to 57.87 per cent after half. Turnout reached 56.66 per cent, up from 51.72 per cent in 2021 and the highest Duma turnout since 2011.
Both figures fit perfectly with the Kremlin’s pre-election narrative. Putin had explicitly cast the vote as a demonstration of national unity and support for Russian soldiers. Higher participation combined with a stronger United Russia result gives Moscow numbers it can use to argue that growing war fatigue has not translated into similar fatigue with Putin.
Polling data before the vote also showed dynamics pointing towards that conclusion: there was existing and rising support for peace negotiations, while Putin’s approval rating and support for the military also remained high.
Even if they wanted to, Russians could not have expressed their opposition to the war or, more broadly, the Kremlin, at least on the ballot, as there were few to no genuinely anti-Putin actors in the line-up. KPRF, LDPR, New People and A Just Russia compete with United Russia on domestic policy but form what is commonly described as the ‘systemic opposition’ and broadly support the Kremlin’s strategic course and the war.
Yabloko, the only registered party openly opposing the war, was removed from the nationwide party-list contest, although some candidates could run in individual constituencies.
‘The vote was preceded by unprecedented security preparations’
The vote was preceded by unprecedented security preparations, which showed how much the atmosphere inside Russia has changed compared with the 2024 presidential election due to Ukraine’s now months-long deep-strike campaign into the Russian hinterland. Ramped-up security nevertheless failed to prevent major incidents, resulting in the deadliest State Duma election in post-Soviet Russian history.
On 20 September, the last day of voting, three people were killed in the Moscow region during what Russian authorities called the ‘largest Ukrainian drone attack on the capital since 2022’. The same day, two people died when a drone hit a bus in Russian-held Kherson, including a polling commission member, while two more were reported killed in Russian-held Donetsk. On 18 September, the first day of voting, a man was killed when a drone struck a private house in the Kursk region.
Counting will continue into Monday.
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