Xi seeking US retreat from first island chain with ‘empty promises’: official

By Chen Yun and Hollie Younger / Staff reporter, with staff writer

Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) would likely use “empty promises” to push the US to reduce its security commitments in the first island chain and relax export controls on advanced technology during his meeting this week with US President Donald Trump in Washington, a national security officer said today.

Xi is likely to tell Trump that Beijing would increase purchases of US soybeans and liquefied natural gas (LNG), and deescalate tensions in the Middle East to achieve its long-term goals, including pressing Trump to delay arms sales to Taiwan, they said.

China is seeking to exploit a ”strategic window” as the US and its allies are occupied with the Middle East, Ukraine and the upcoming midterm elections, they said.

However, the first island chain is integral to US national interests and national security strategy, and there is no need to be overly concerned that the US would back down on its commitments, they added.

Xi is visiting the US from today until Friday, marking his first trip in 11 years and the two presidents’ second meeting this year.

China has labeled Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines as the “troublemakers” in the region, accusing Japan of promoting a new form of militarism, Taiwan of relying on the US to gain independence and the Philippines of acting as Washington’s “watchdog,” the official said.

Meanwhile, Beijing is expanding its military activity and political influence across and beyond the first island chain in an effort to exercise de facto control of the western Pacific, they said.

It continues to use military intimidation, cognitive warfare and economic coercion, and to increase the presence of its coast guard, navy and research vessels in the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, the official said.

Beijing is using three key approaches toward the US, they said.

First, it is leveraging its cooperation with Russia, Iran and North Korea to push Washington to invest more resources in global security issues, they said.

Second, it is employing think tank reports and academic research papers to influence US policy discussions and amplify the narrative that the first island chain is a burden, including by creating an impression that the US is likely to “abandon Taiwan,” they said.

Third, it is using soybean and LNG purchases and promises to deescalate tensions in the Middle East as incentives in negotiations with the US, they added.

Domestically, China is using external actions to demonstrate national strength and diplomatic achievements as Xi seeks another term following next year’s 21st National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party and amid China’s struggling economy, they said.

As top US officials have recently warned against cheap exports from non-market economics and the importance of stability in the Taiwan Strait, it indicates that the US recognizes Beijing’s intentions and is preparing a security framework, the official said.

If the US reduces security commitments to the first island chain, relaxes export controls on advanced technologies or reduces countermeasures against China’s excess capacity and non-market policies, it would indicate Beijing has achieved its goals, they added.

Additional reporting by CNA