The Trump administration’s proposal to buy potash from Belarus is drawing skepticism from at least one fertilizer market analyst, who says the plan runs into a wall of geography, sanctions and history long before it ever reaches a farm field.
President Donald Trump said Monday the United States is working on a “massive deal” to buy Belarusian potash at a price substantially below what the U.S. currently pays Canada, which supplies roughly 80 percent of U.S. potash imports. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe pushed back on the claim, noting that Belarus is landlocked and that any shipments would have to move through Russia before reaching the United States. Belarus has also faced sanctions and lost its main export route through Lithuania, adding to the logistical hurdles. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has said his country resumed potash sales to the U.S. after Washington eased sanctions on Belarusian producers, though it remains unclear how much Belarus could actually ramp up shipments.
Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at StoneX, said the numbers make the comparison almost meaningless.
“Let’s look at history at their max,” Linville said. “I think this was back in 2017, 2018. Belarus sent the most potash to U.S. shores that they ever have, of 750,000 tons. Canada sends so many more times than that to the U.S. marketplace every single year.”
Linville said that gap has only widened. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Belarus opening its borders to Russian troops, Belarusian potash shipments to the U.S. have dropped to zero. The map, he said, explains why. Belarus used to move its potash through Lithuania, which shut down that route. Latvia is a NATO member and Poland is a NATO member, ruling out the West. Ukraine will not open its territory after Russia used Belarusian land to help launch its invasion. That leaves Belarus shipping through Russia itself, either to a third country or through one of Russia’s own export terminals.
“It’s timely, it’s costly, and Russia wants to get their own fertilizer out,” Linville said. “So unfortunately, this entire thing, and I know what President Trump’s trying to do, he’s trying to put pressure on Canada for the negotiation deal, but the threat rings hollow. To me, it’s a non-event.”
Potash Isn’t Actually the Problem
Linville said the irony of the Belarus discussion is that potash is one of the better-priced inputs farmers can buy right now. Potash prices spiked in 2021 and 2022 but have since leveled off, and when measured against corn prices, Linville called it one of the best values the market has seen in years.
“When you look at where potash is today versus corn prices, it’s one of the best values that we have seen going back several years,” he said. “You ought to be doing it because potash is just well priced in general.” Phosphate and nitrogen, by contrast, remain at extremely high prices, he said.
Linville was also blunt about who ultimately pays for a cross-border trade fight, regardless of which government claims victory. “We all know the crap rolls downhill,” Linville said. “The farmers are going to be the ones paying it with higher prices. They’re going to take the money out of our pockets to go send it to the government.”
Beyond the Belarus headline, Linville said he is watching Russia closely as a major global fertilizer manufacturer and exporter, along with Ukraine’s expanding drone attacks as the war remains stalemated. If Ukraine begins targeting Russian fertilizer vessels or port facilities to squeeze Russia’s economy, global supply could tighten quickly, he said. But the bigger chokepoint, in his view, is the Strait of Hormuz.
“A lot of the world fertilizer woes, that story begins and ends with the Strait,” Linville said.
Farmers Urged to Talk to Suppliers Now
With fall application season approaching, Linville said growers should not wait on global headlines to resolve before locking in supply.
“I think you need to be having a conversation with your supplier today, not tomorrow, not next week, today,” he said. “From a logistical standpoint, I don’t want to say time’s out, but time is running out.”
Linville said retailers and distributors are limiting how much product they stock given high diesel costs and uncertain demand, which sets up a risk scenario for early November, when improving corn and bean prices could send a wave of farmers to place late orders.
“My single biggest fear is that we all wake up on November 1st and say, you know what, corn prices look pretty good,” Linville said. “I’m going to go ahead and fertilize, and you’re going to show up and you’re going to have that conversation. Diesel fuel is still very high, it’s going to take a long time to get the stuff here. It just may take longer and it may cost a lot more to get it there in time.”