Republican former Florida congressman Matt Gaetz summed up a large portion of the GOP’s midterm message this week when he responded to a man who said he was voting Democratic for the first time ever.

“I hate the war too,” Gaetz told the man on X. “But the Democrats want to trans your kids.”

The trans issue seemed to be a potent one in the 2024 election — President Donald Trump’s team cut an effective ad that professed Democratic nominee Kamala Harris was “for they/them. President Trump is for you.” But a new CNN poll this week suggests that playbook won’t be as effective this time.

And that seems to be the case for several other red-meat GOP issues, as well. Republicans have well-established topics that voters favor them on — and that they’ve sought to focus on. But, right now, polls show those aren’t voters’ top priorities.

Perhaps more than in any other recent midterm, other issues are simply being swamped by the economy.

And that’s an issue that Trump’s actions have handed to Democrats on a silver platter.

The GOP focused on transgender policies extensively in the 2024 presidential election. And it’s been a fixture in its 2026 ad campaign, too.

But the new CNN poll shows registered voters only prefer the GOP by a small margin on that issue, 37%-32%.

And perhaps most strikingly, just 25% called the issue “extremely important” to their vote. That was the lowest of 11 issues tested, behind abortion, tariffs and crime — and far behind healthcare and voting issues.

Similarly, CNN polling in July showed just 35% of independents said Democrats were too focused on transgender issues, compared to 31% who said the same of Republicans.

Democrats have deemphasized their support for transgender rights since 2024 and tacked closer to the middle on issues like kids’ sports. And some of them are even running ads on their positions.

It’s certainly true that focusing on transgender policies could drive GOP turnout, which Republicans could use thanks to their unenthusiastic base. But even there, just 34% of Republicans say the issue is extremely important to their vote — barely more than the 29% of Democrats who say the same.

Immigration is another mainstay of Republican campaign efforts. And it would seem to be a strong message for the GOP, given Trump has slowed illegal border-crossings to record lows.

It’s also something 50% of voters say is extremely important to their vote. That’s a high number; it’s an increase over those who said the same in the 2022, 2018 and 2006 midterm elections.

But there’s a catch: The reason that number has risen is because Democrats now care about it a lot, too — apparently thanks to Trump’s unpopular deportation policies.

In 2022, Republicans were 35 points more likely than Democrats to label immigration as an extremely important issue, 65%-30%. Today, the gap is down to 10 points — 60%-50%.

Republicans still seem to have a small edge on immigration, with voters picking them over the Democratic Party 41%-36% in the CNN poll. But other polls show Democrats are ahead.

And, paradoxically, the slowdown on the border would seem to make the issue a lot less urgent for voters.

Republicans lead on this issue by more than any other, 40%-29%.

But just 41% of registered voters say the issue is extremely important to their vote.

And again, the major reductions we’ve seen in recent years — which Trump frequently touts but began during the Biden administration — have seemingly made the issue less salient for voters.

Another major focal point for the GOP in recent weeks has been invoking far-left streamer Hasan Piker. And that’s not just been in their campaign against Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, who campaigned with Piker during his primary, but other Democrats as well.

But a new poll suggests it’s not really penetrating with those who don’t follow politics closely.

The New York Times-Siena College poll in Michigan showed Piker was quite unpopular among likely voters who know him. But 6 in 10 offered no opinion about him, and 54% said they hadn’t even heard of him.

Only 13% of independents had an opinion of Piker.

And there is one incontrovertibly big issue: the economy. It might be a more dominant point than it’s been in a long time.

The CNN poll shows 68% of registered voters say the economy is extremely important to their vote. That’s virtually tied with the previous high watermark for that issue, which clocked in between 59% and 69% in the 2022 midterm elections.

Besides that, the economy only cracked 50% in one other midterm in the 21st Century: 2010 (56%).

To reiterate: it’s usually under 50%; today it’s 68%.

Thanks to Trump’s 73% disapproval rating on the economy and his 80% disapproval rating on inflation, Democrats have taken a seven-point lead on this issue — which historically favors Republicans.

The GOP seems to be dedicating significant efforts to make the election about other things, echoing a president who has been remarkably dismissive of concerns about affordability and gas prices.

But right now, there’s very little evidence it’s working — or even could work.