Six Election Fraud Probes Put Sweden’s Leftist Victory, Immigrant Vote under Scrutiny

The result of Sweden’s parliamentary election, which saw the leftist bloc secure a razor-thin three-seat victory over the anti-immigration Tidö bloc, has become increasingly disputed after police confirmed five ongoing investigations into suspected electoral fraud in Stockholm, adding to a separate inquiry in Dalarna involving two Left Party (V) politicians. With the integrity of the election already heavily damaged, the results of the probes could potentially overturn the leftist victory.

Stockholm police confirmed on Friday, 25 September, that five preliminary investigations remain active across Stockholm city, Sigtuna and Nacka. According to authorities, all concern suspected improper interference with voting, while two also involve possible vote-buying.

The Stockholm investigations include one in Järva, two in Sigtuna, one in Nacka and a fifth concerning several locations across Sweden, including the capital region.

In Järva, allegations focus on advance voting in the heavily immigrant-populated neighbourhoods of Rinkeby, Tensta and Husby. Local newspaper Mitt i, which analysed election workers’ incident reports, described the alleged offences as involving pre-marked ballot papers, voters being followed behind voting screens and a Left Party representative distributing ballots immediately outside a polling station in Rinkeby.

The allegations also concern the personal-vote campaign of newly elected Left Party MP Ilyas Hassan, who is of Somali origin. Stockholm’s election administration said it had received reports of inappropriate conduct but disputed claims that its earlier information established electoral fraud. The Left Party rejected allegations directed at Hassan and welcomed an investigation into the circumstances.

‘Allegations focus on advance voting in the heavily immigrant-populated neighbourhoods of Rinkeby, Tensta and Husby’

In Sigtuna, the municipal election board reported two separate incidents. In the first, at Arlanda Komvux in Valsta, a person allegedly distributed ballots with a candidate already marked. Another occurred at Kulturlänken in central Märsta, where a man reportedly attempted to accompany a woman behind the voting screen and instructed her on whom to vote for. Election workers had previously observed him accompanying other women in a similar manner.

The fifth investigation’s precise locations have not been fully disclosed, while the Nacka case remains under examination.

Separately, Sweden’s national anti-corruption police are investigating suspected electoral interference in Borlänge, Dalarna. The probe involves two Somali-Swedish Left Party politicians: newly elected MP Mohammed Abdurkardir Ali and municipal candidate Ahmed Abas Omar.

Ali secured his parliamentary seat through 648 personal votes despite occupying only ninth place on the party list. Reports claim that voters were transported to polling stations and supplied with pre-marked ballots, similarly to several of the aforementioned cases. Swedish media also reported allegations involving cash distributions, possibly in exchange for votes.

The investigation was initially discontinued due to insufficient evidence before being reopened recently following new information. Both politicians involved announced temporary withdrawals from their duties.

If we look at the investigations and their geographical concentration in Stockholm, the link between election fraud allegations and the demographic composition of the districts becomes hard to ignore. The areas overlap with some of Sweden’s most heavily immigrant-populated neighbourhoods, where the Social Democrats and Left Party enjoy significant electoral support.

In Rinkeby and Tensta, approximately nine in ten residents have a foreign background, while the two parties together received more than 90 per cent of parliamentary votes in several electoral districts. The pattern was also evident in Husby and Valsta, although their combined S–V shares were somewhat lower.

SVT’s exit poll had already found that 70 per cent of voters with non-European backgrounds supported the four opposition parties, compared with 27 per cent backing Tidö. Reuters subsequently identified approximately 73,000 additional opposition votes across 786 immigrant-heavy electoral districts compared with 2022.

Now, the same districts that drove massive numbers of immigrant-background votes to the leftist bloc are under investigation for alleged election fraud. That, however, also offers a glimmer of hope for Tidö, as a net transfer of two parliamentary seats between blocs would reverse the current 176–173 leftist majority into a 175–174 Tidö victory.

From this perspective, Dalarna and the 11 parliamentary seats distributed in the county become particularly relevant. Six of these currently belong to the left and five to the right. Sweden’s Election Review Board can order a recount or rerun where established breaches can reasonably be assumed to have affected the election result. According to Swedish law, such a rerun would have to take place within three months.

There is an important distinction between party votes and allegations concerning personal votes, such as in Mohammed Abdurkardir Ali’s case. Under Sweden’s electoral system, people vote for party lists first, while personal votes determine the order in which MPs enter the Riksdag. Changing the national parliamentary balance would require an electoral correction or rerun that actually redistributed mandates across the blocs.

Whether that happens now rests with the investigations and the electoral review. Whatever the results may be, the Swedish election has already become one of the most important and cautionary votes of recent years, sending a clear warning to Europe’s right about the significance of the immigrant vote in future elections.

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