#hopefullywrong – two immunologists from Germany shared their predictions for the winter. Seems like a pretty hopeless situation

5 comments

1. They should close the schools.

2. The new coalition said no more lockdowns. If they don’t stand by their word, I hope people hit the streets.

3. What data ist this based on?

   It‘s almost impossible to predict the next months as it‘s completely unclear how much people will reduce contacts by themselves. The RKI precisely predicted the current development with falling cases in the next few weeks. Usually, high case numbers and pictures of the military helping out in hospitals/transports cause people to reduce contacts (we‘ve seen this before every lockdown) but this year everything is different.

   We also don‘t understand the dynamics of Christmas gatherings and holidays. Last year they caused a decline. Maybe because work and public transport is actually a big factor and people are careful with their families?

   Then of course, we don‘t know how fast boosters and vaccinating more people work. It‘s certainly not in the next month but next year, giving out boosters to the most vulnerable and vaccinating a few more percent may actually bring relieve to the ICUs.

   We also don‘t know how „natural“ immunity will effect the numbers in early 2022. Right now, the reported numbers say 0.3-1.0% of the population are being infected *every week*. One can reasonably assume that we actually have 2x-5x in actual infections (or even more). This means „natural“ immunity for almost 1-5% of the unvaccinated population. If the numbers stay like this we‘ll certainly see the ICUs overflowing but it‘ll also change the situation in spring.

   In summary: Predictions now are as difficult as never before.

4. No word about B.1.1.529 (omicron variant)? This could change a lot. And closing all the borders will just delay it for a week or two, like with the delta variant.

5. Yes. And it could have been prevented. RKI published their prediction in July and so far they have been off by like a week, but overall infections are exactly following the path they laid out in July. So politicians knew exactly what would happen. They just chose not to actand prevent it.

   Now tens of thousands of people will have to pay for this political inaction with their lives or their health and everyone else who manages to avoid the virus will be stuck at home until spring. It’s just a complete shitshow of massive proportions.