As the U.S.-Iran conflict enters its eighth month, Middle East crude transport volumes are recovering at a pace that has exceeded market expectations. The latest estimates released separately by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group show that despite persistent shipping risks, crude export volumes from the Persian Gulf region have approached pre-war levels, with crude shipments rebounding to 17.5 million barrels per day—equivalent to 98% of pre-war volumes.
JPMorgan analysts noted in a September 29 report that Middle East oil export channels have largely resumed operations. Based on a 10-day moving average over the past five days, combined crude and refined product transport volumes have recovered to 89% of 2025 levels. However, the pace of recovery varies significantly across product categories: refined product shipments such as diesel and gasoline currently stand at only 3 million barrels per day, roughly 58% of pre-war levels, indicating that the repair of refined product supply chains continues to lag behind crude trade.
The recovery in Strait of Hormuz transit has been particularly pronounced. JPMorgan data shows that oil flows through the strait have now approached 13 million barrels per day, nearly returning to the peak seen in late June, driven primarily by Saudi Arabian exports. Additionally, Saudi Arabia’s east-west cross-country pipeline, which was damaged earlier this month, has now recovered roughly half of its throughput capacity. The pipeline connects Saudi Arabia’s eastern oil fields to export terminals on the Red Sea coast and serves as a critical alternative route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.
Goldman Sachs offered a more optimistic estimate in a report released over the same period. The bank noted that including “dark flows”—shipments transported through covert means—Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, roughly in line with the 2025 average. Goldman analysts said the global oil market was largely in balance during September.
Notably, both firms observed a clear divergence in exports among Persian Gulf producers. Goldman Sachs pointed out that Iranian oil exports are declining while exports from other Persian Gulf producers are rising; Saudi Arabia’s estimated export volumes more than doubled in September, exceeding the 2025 average.
JPMorgan specifically cautioned that the rebound in transport volumes should not be misconstrued as an improvement in the security environment. Analysts emphasized in the report that higher throughput reflects the oil industry’s enhanced operational capability under persistent risk conditions, rather than a dissipation of geopolitical risk.
Goldman Sachs expressed a similarly cautious stance. The bank’s analysts noted that despite the recovery in Persian Gulf exports, crude prices remain relatively well-supported, and further damage to energy infrastructure from an escalation in the conflict could still push oil prices significantly higher.
Brent crude futures are on track to post a monthly gain of approximately 14% in September, which would mark the largest single-month increase since July. The Trump administration’s rejection of any easing of sanctions on Iran, combined with signals that Qatar is advancing peace negotiations, have jointly supported oil prices. Goldman Sachs maintained its base-case forecast that North Sea Brent crude will retreat to $85 per barrel (approximately NT$2,700) by year-end, and decline further to $80 per barrel (approximately NT$2,500) in 2027.
U.S. officials have repeatedly stated that transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this month that “sometimes” 17 million barrels of oil per day pass through the strait; TotalEnergies SE CEO Patrick Pouyanne estimated that roughly 10 million barrels per day of crude and refined products are exported from the region.
The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to global markets, and the waterway has experienced persistent attacks on shipping over the past several months. Iran claims control over the waterway, while the United States rejects that claim and has imposed a blockade on Iranian ports while assisting vessels from other countries in transit.
Market participants note that the rapid recovery in Middle East crude transport is reshaping investor assessments of supply tightness. The market had previously worried that the U.S.-Iran conflict could lead to prolonged disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a substantial decline in global crude supply; as actual transport volumes have rebounded, part of the supply risk premium has begun to recede. However, both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs stressed that the current recovery depends on the adaptability of shipping companies and energy firms to the risk environment, rather than any substantive reduction in geopolitical risk—any new attack or escalation in the conflict could once again disrupt energy transport.