>Interest in the political economy of crime goes back to sociology’s founding fathers, but the nature of the relationship between restrictive social security systems and crime remains contested. This paper exploits exogenous variation in the introduction of Universal Credit (UC) to local areas across England and Wales to address this question. We first use fixed effects models, with a range of controls, to show that as UC enrolments increase in a given area, so does the crime rate. We then use interrupted time series analysis to show that, despite UC being rolled out at different times in different places, its introduction in each local area coincides with a positive shift in the trend in crime. These findings hold for total crime, property crime and violent crime. Borrowing from Strain Theory and Routine Activities Theory, we suggest that changes to the pool of motivated offenders may help to explain these correlations
The Tory Party, increasing crime since time immemorial.
There were studies done while New Labour were in power that demonstrated their welfare system reduced crime.
The Tories will never, ever acknowledge the link between poverty and crime though.
So it turns out if you offer people the choice of starving to death or crime they tend to chose crime. Someone should write an overly long book about it. I’m sure it would make a great musical, and a so so film.
UC seems a failure. But we desperately need a fairer, more transparent benefit system. So when labour get in we need to get serious about reform here.
[deleted]
I have never understood the hatred on benefits. If someone needs help then fucking help them. If you refuse to help them and continue to shit on them they will turn to other methods.
If you helped them, got them back on their feet and got them in a job then they will pay taxes which feeds into the system.
Instead we treat them like shit cause SOMETIMES someone will take advantage of the system, you know like Tory lords being in companies getting covid contracts, or Tory MP’s referring their mates or Tory MP’s claiming everything on expenses.
Jokes aside, there are a LOT of issues with this paper. They recognise a few of them but don’t really mention them. A few have been added to the footnotes. Several other studies have found the opposite correlation.
The same person who wrote that paper also found that stop and search reduced crime. Stop and search might have led to fewer arrests for carrying drugs but all that did was make dealers more hesitant about carrying drugs. There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that it reduced drug use or sales.
What this doesn’t talk about is the humongous amount of errors on Universal Credit. A large part of is automated which means you can lie and noone checks what you’ve said. Also however many questions are confusing or misleading which leads to claimants getting less than they should because they answered the question wrong and they don’t know the effect until the end of the 5 week wait, at which point the DWP don’t give a shit to fix it, it’s too late.
IDS’s smug face makes me want to turn to crime.
What? If you hammer and starve desperate people they’ll do desperate things and break the law to get money??? Omg I could never have foreseen this, better give them even less – Every single Tory MP (2022)
There are easy-as-piss jobs out there with decent pay and hours. It’s just that some people can’t hack it. F&B – “too tough, plus have to deal with customers”. Warehouse work – “nobody told me I’d have to lift heavy stuff”.
Turn up on time, do the job required and then go home to fuck the girlfriend/wife or whatever. However, turning up on time seems to be a perennial issue with a certain demographic of people.
If you’re early, you’re never late and people notice that.
Probably because UC alone isn’t enough, so people need to subsidise their income some how. Almost like poverty causes crime, hmm?
You mean because people aren’t able to live on UC that they’re stealing in order to make ends meet?
Heir Duncan Smith is full of crap, horrible individual
It’s a sad state of affairs that people’s morals are so low that they will commit crime if they aren’t given enough money off the Government. Live within your means. The people committing crimes are not the ones who have suddenly fallen on hard times through loosing their jobs, they will be the ones who expect to be able to live off the state.
So it’s not because Dr Who is a woman. Colour me shocked
I said it at the time. Big Government Tories want high crime to justify high oppression and high taxation to pay for it.
19 comments
Link to the study – [The Political Economy of Crime: Did Universal Credit Increase Crime Rates?](https://academic.oup.com/bjc/advance-article/doi/10.1093/bjc/azac043/6611758?login=false)
>__Abstract__
>Interest in the political economy of crime goes back to sociology’s founding fathers, but the nature of the relationship between restrictive social security systems and crime remains contested. This paper exploits exogenous variation in the introduction of Universal Credit (UC) to local areas across England and Wales to address this question. We first use fixed effects models, with a range of controls, to show that as UC enrolments increase in a given area, so does the crime rate. We then use interrupted time series analysis to show that, despite UC being rolled out at different times in different places, its introduction in each local area coincides with a positive shift in the trend in crime. These findings hold for total crime, property crime and violent crime. Borrowing from Strain Theory and Routine Activities Theory, we suggest that changes to the pool of motivated offenders may help to explain these correlations
The Tory Party, increasing crime since time immemorial.
There were studies done while New Labour were in power that demonstrated their welfare system reduced crime.
The Tories will never, ever acknowledge the link between poverty and crime though.
So it turns out if you offer people the choice of starving to death or crime they tend to chose crime. Someone should write an overly long book about it. I’m sure it would make a great musical, and a so so film.
UC seems a failure. But we desperately need a fairer, more transparent benefit system. So when labour get in we need to get serious about reform here.
[deleted]
I have never understood the hatred on benefits. If someone needs help then fucking help them. If you refuse to help them and continue to shit on them they will turn to other methods.
If you helped them, got them back on their feet and got them in a job then they will pay taxes which feeds into the system.
Instead we treat them like shit cause SOMETIMES someone will take advantage of the system, you know like Tory lords being in companies getting covid contracts, or Tory MP’s referring their mates or Tory MP’s claiming everything on expenses.
[Pirates are also linked to Global warming.](https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikaandersen/2012/03/23/true-fact-the-lack-of-pirates-is-causing-global-warming/)
Jokes aside, there are a LOT of issues with this paper. They recognise a few of them but don’t really mention them. A few have been added to the footnotes. Several other studies have found the opposite correlation.
The same person who wrote that paper also found that stop and search reduced crime. Stop and search might have led to fewer arrests for carrying drugs but all that did was make dealers more hesitant about carrying drugs. There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that it reduced drug use or sales.
What this doesn’t talk about is the humongous amount of errors on Universal Credit. A large part of is automated which means you can lie and noone checks what you’ve said. Also however many questions are confusing or misleading which leads to claimants getting less than they should because they answered the question wrong and they don’t know the effect until the end of the 5 week wait, at which point the DWP don’t give a shit to fix it, it’s too late.
IDS’s smug face makes me want to turn to crime.
What? If you hammer and starve desperate people they’ll do desperate things and break the law to get money??? Omg I could never have foreseen this, better give them even less – Every single Tory MP (2022)
There are easy-as-piss jobs out there with decent pay and hours. It’s just that some people can’t hack it. F&B – “too tough, plus have to deal with customers”. Warehouse work – “nobody told me I’d have to lift heavy stuff”.
Turn up on time, do the job required and then go home to fuck the girlfriend/wife or whatever. However, turning up on time seems to be a perennial issue with a certain demographic of people.
If you’re early, you’re never late and people notice that.
Probably because UC alone isn’t enough, so people need to subsidise their income some how. Almost like poverty causes crime, hmm?
You mean because people aren’t able to live on UC that they’re stealing in order to make ends meet?
Heir Duncan Smith is full of crap, horrible individual
https://twitter.com/Tim_Burgess/status/484623157807304704?s=20&t=mztcSjzoaPFQCBxwBukzaw
It’s a sad state of affairs that people’s morals are so low that they will commit crime if they aren’t given enough money off the Government. Live within your means. The people committing crimes are not the ones who have suddenly fallen on hard times through loosing their jobs, they will be the ones who expect to be able to live off the state.
So it’s not because Dr Who is a woman. Colour me shocked
I said it at the time. Big Government Tories want high crime to justify high oppression and high taxation to pay for it.
I really fucking hate being right sometimes.