Middle East oil supply looms over midterms, while Yemen seeks to root out Houthis

Iran’s army chief warned Monday that the country’s armed forces are ready to deliver a “crushing” response to any renewed U.S. military action while accusing Washington of turning to economic sanctions after losing the battle.

“After failing on the military battlefield, the enemy has resorted to other methods and, through sanctions and economic pressure, is trying to put the people under pressure, while at the same time pursuing many measures to create insecurity and unrest,” Hatami said, according to Fars, the state-affiliated news agency.

Hatami added that Iranian forces would deliver “a crushing and decisive response” if the United States makes “another mistake.” 

President Donald Trump told Fox News correspondent Lucas Tomlinson on Monday that he thinks Iran was behind the attempted attack aboard a Tel Aviv-bound flydubai flight on Sept. 30.

“And on flydubai. Do you think Iran was responsible for that terrorist attack?” Tomlinson asked.

President Trump said, “I do, I personally do.”

The Tel Aviv-bound flydubai flight had landed safely in Saudi Arabia after passengers and crew subdued the co-pilot, who attacked the captain and tried to crash the plane.

President Donald Trump issued a stark warning to Tehran on Monday, saying Iran would “suffer greatly” if it brought combat drones into the United Kingdom, while predicting the war with Iran will end shortly.

When pressed by reporters on the tarmac before departing for Grand Island, Nebraska, about whether Iran had brought combat drones into the United Kingdom, Trump replied: “I can’t tell you that.”

“But if they did, they’ll suffer greatly.”

The president also said the war with Iran “ is going to end very soon. One way or the other.”

President Donald Trump said Monday that Washington pulled its U.S. bombers from RAF Fairford in the U.K. because of a credible security threat.

“I think we can say that. I mean, they didn’t fly out by accident,” Trump told reporters after being asked whether there had been a specific threat.

“There were some threats. And rather than tempting the enemy, we’ll capture the enemy and beat the enemy,” Trump said.

“But why should we leave him there? So we moved them around a little bit. Not very far,” he added.

The remarks came as Washington removed its heavy bombers from the base it had used to launch strikes on Iran, amid an investigation into a suspected plot to attack the base, in which six people were arrested and released on bail.

At least a dozen planes, including B-1 bombers, were redeployed to the United States from Royal Air Force Fairford, the Pentagon said.

Another tanker was hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, sparking a fire in its engine room, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported.

The maritime organization said there were no reported casualties or environmental impacts.

“Authorities are investigating. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO,” it said in a statement on X.

This was the third incident in the waterway in the last 48 hours.

The U.S. Embassy in Riyadh issued a security alert Monday warning Americans in Saudi Arabia of potential drone and missile attacks.

“Due to the ongoing security situation in Saudi Arabia and the potential for aerial drone or missile attacks on Saudi Arabia, the U.S. Mission strongly encourages all U.S. citizens to remain vigilant and follow the guidance of national alerts released by Saudi Arabia’s Civil Defense,” the embassy said on X.

The warning came amid rising tension in the region as Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a lightning advance, retaking the coast along the Bab el-Mandab Strait through the city of Mocha and driving Iran-backed Houthis from most of the territory they seized last month, the government said. 

Iran is adopting a mirror narrative, using President Donald Trump‘s own claims to make their own.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian lashed out at the United States on Monday, saying negotiations have “no meaning” with an enemy that “terrorizes, sanctions, pressures and threatens on a daily basis,” according to Iranian state media.

The irony of the remarks are very close to what Trump and his administration has long claimed of Iran.

The comments signal Tehran’s hardening public stance as the Iran war continues to fuel attacks on global shipping routes, energy disruptions and growing threats to U.S. assets abroad.

They also come as Trump has said Iran wants to make a deal “quickly and badly,” while U.S. officials continue to press military and economic pressure on Tehran.

Retired Gen. Jack Keane said Monday that Saudi Arabia “cannot let” the Iran-backed Houthis maintain control near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, calling the waterway “strategically as significant as the Straits of Hormuz.”

“The Houthis escalated significantly when they took control of the Bab al-Mandeb Straits,” Keane told Monday’s Fox News “America’s Newsroom.” “That’s a waterway that is strategically as significant as the Straits of Hormuz, and the Saudis, in terms of its impact on them and their economy, they can’t let that stand.”

Keane said a U.S. task force led by a three-star general is helping provide intelligence and targeting assistance to Saudi-backed forces, while Israel may also be providing support.His comments came as Yemen’s Saudi-backed government launched a major offensive against the Houthis, who have threatened shipping and energy flows through the Red Sea during the Iran war.

Keane also called the U.S. decision to move B-1 bombers out of RAF Fairford in the U.K. “significant,” saying it indicates U.S. leaders believe there is a threat to the base and are taking precautionary measures.

Yemen’s deputy defense minister said government forces have taken “full control” of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and Perim Island, according to a local news outlet citing Al-Arabiya TV.

“We have taken full control of Bab al-Mandab and Mayun Island, and the military operation is ongoing,” the Yemeni official was quoted as saying.

The reported claim marks a major potential development in the Iran war, as Bab al-Mandeb is a critical maritime chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and one of the world’s most important shipping routes.

President Donald Trump said Monday that gasoline prices are being driven up by refinery problems rather than the Strait of Hormuz, arguing that “record numbers of barrels” are now moving out of the region.

“What’s driving up Gasoline is no longer the Strait of Hormuz, because Record Numbers of Barrels are coming out now on an almost daily basis, but the word, ‘Refineries,’ where Russia’s are being blown up by Ukraine, and where ours are being closed up, in Blue States, like California, by the Dumocrats,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Trump’s post comes as global fuel markets remain strained by the Iran war, refinery disruptions in Russia and the Middle East, and tight supplies of diesel and gasoline.

Middle East crude exports recently rose above pre-war levels, but oil executives have warned that refined products remain under pressure.

President Donald Trump is preparing an executive order to expand access to tax-exempt diesel as fuel prices surge from the Iran and Ukraine wars.

Diesel prices hit a record of about $6.50 a gallon last month, creating a political risk for Trump ahead of the Nov. 3 elections. The fuel is critical for trucking and moving goods, and prices have climbed amid attacks on refineries in Russia and the Middle East.

The order, expected as soon as Monday, could expand access to so-called red dye diesel, a tax-exempt fuel used by agriculture and some off-road vehicles.

It may also direct the U.S. Department of Transportation to coordinate with states to waive taxes on road diesel.

The move comes after G7 countries announced plans to release 100 million barrels of diesel following pressure from Trump, who had considered banning U.S. exports of the fuel.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Vice President JD Vance said the U.S. is reviewing flight security procedures after the FlyDubai terrorist attack, warning that people who pose flight risks should not be allowed “behind the wheel of an airplane.”

“Any time you have any person coming from outside the United States, you’ve got to be extra careful that that person is actually, one, a good human being, is going to contribute to American society,” Vance told reporters on the tarmac before a trip to Alaska.

Vance said the lesson of the 9/11 attacks was that “we brought a lot of people into the United States of America who shouldn’t have been here and certainly shouldn’t have been flying planes.”

“We’re certainly looking at our procedures within the United States to make sure that people who are obviously flight risks are not getting behind the wheel of an airplane,” Vance said.

Vance said he felt “good” about what is happening in the U.S. regarding potential Iran involvement, but deferred to CIA Director John Ratcliffe and intelligence officials, adding that he had not seen “anything conclusive.”

Vice President JD Vance said the U.S. is taking extreme precautions at overseas military installations after suspected terrorist activity near a British base where U.S. bombers had been stationed.

Asked about suspected Iranian involvement in the U.K. incident, Vance said officials are being “as careful as we possibly can be” and described the U.S. bomber withdrawal as a move made out of caution to protect American forces.

“What you saw there is the Secretary of War, out of an abundance of caution, trying to protect our guys,” Vance said.

“We do feel with some confidence that the Iranians are, you know, they’re trying to do what the Iranian state has done for 49 years, which is engaged in acts of terrorism against the United States and against a lot of other people as wel. So we are being extremely cautious.”

Yemeni government forces have reportedly taken control of Mocha, a port city west of Taiz, from Houthi terrorist militias, according to a local news outlet citing a public post on X.

“The Armed Forces have taken control of the city of Mokha, west of Taiz, from the Houthi terrorist militias,” the post read.

The reported advance comes as Saudi-backed Yemeni forces press a broader offensive against the Iran-aligned Houthis, including near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a critical Red Sea shipping chokepoint.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Monday the United States intends to honor its defense and security agreement with Saudi Arabia as Saudi-backed Yemeni forces battle to retake territory from the Iran-backed Houthis near a key Red Sea shipping route.

“The United States has a defense and security agreement with Saudi Arabia, and we intend to live by it: I won’t discuss details further than that,” Rubio told reporters Monday.

“As far as our view of it, why I think it’s the Saudis and the Yemeni forces clearly are not in favor of a ruthless control in that territory close to the to the strait there and its territory that was gained as a result of a Houthi offensive. And this is the counter to what we expect that that would happen. And that’s what’s happened.

“So obviously the Saudis have come under attack and, and can see the threat that that poses and they have a right to defend themselves. And obviously, the Yemeni forces are going to try to retake territory that they were ousted from.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. still has confidence in the security of all its bases after an incident at a British air base used by American forces.

Rubio said the British “couldn’t be more cooperative” in responding to the incident.His comments came after U.S. B-1 bombers were removed from RAF Fairford, a key U.S. air base in the U.K., following arrests tied to a suspected Iran-backed plot near the facility.

“It’s not unusual to see rotations happen and move into the different parts of the world based on exercises, redeployment, people changing out and people coming in, new planes coming in, old planes going out,” Rubio told reporters Monday. “So crews are changing all the time. You guys are just really focused on that now because you still have confidence in British security at the base.

“But we have confidence in the security of all of our bases, because all of our bases are theoretically could be threatened at any moment. and that’s why there’s so much security built around them.

“And, with the Brits, we work very closely for a very long time, including on this investigation. And they couldn’t be more cooperative.”

An LPG tanker transiting inbound into the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unknown projectile Sunday, according to a warning from United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).

The reported strike marks another escalation near the critical oil and gas chokepoint, where merchant vessels have faced mounting threats during the Iran war.

The incident follows a string of recent tanker attacks and warnings in and around Hormuz, including a separate UKMTO report that a tanker was hailed by Iran’s IRGC and ordered to turn back or risk being targeted.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog warns of escalating regional threats as Iran increases attacks near the Strait of Hormuz.

Herzog told Fox News’ “America’s Newsroom” on Monday hailed the importance of military readiness and U.S. support.

The discussion comes as Israel honors victims of the Oct. 7 terror attacks, marking three years since the tragic events.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell nearly 1.7% to $89.61 a barrel Monday after Middle East crude exports increased and G7 nations pledged to release more emergency supplies.

WTI dropped below $90, while global Brent crude slipped 0.4% to $101.82 a barrel as markets weighed fresh supply against continuing disruption fears from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

G7 countries agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves and pledged to avoid energy export restrictions.

The move comes as Middle Eastern crude exports rose above pre-war levels in four of the final seven days of September, despite attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Still, PVM Oil Associate analyst Tamas Varga warned that renewed fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis would keep attacks on energy infrastructure and vessels in focus, maintaining an elevated geopolitical risk premium.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Kuwait Petroleum Corporation is looking at new pipeline routes and expanded storage as Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to squeeze global fuel supplies, CEO Shaikh Nawaf Al-Sabah said Monday.

Al-Sabah said from the Energy Intelligence Forum in London that KPC is studying pipeline routes including from Kuwait into Oman through Saudi Arabia, while also looking at increasing domestic storage and capacity at its three overseas refineries.

The push comes as KPC estimates about 6 million barrels per day of refined products are missing from the market. Al-Sabah said there is not enough global refining capacity to make up for shuttered capacity in the Middle East Gulf.

KPC is also working with global partners to expand its tanker fleet through ownership or leasing options for crude and product tankers. Al-Sabah said importing countries need to make investments too, not just exporting countries.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Pressure on crude and refined fuels is set to intensify and it could take up to two years to refill global stockpiles drawn down during the Iran war, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned Monday.

“Until Hormuz fully re-opens and confidence returns, the crude reality is that pressure at both ends of the barrel will intensify – even then, replenishing inventories while meeting demand could take up to two years,” Nasser told the Energy Intelligence Forum in London.

Nasser said nearly 3 billion barrels of oil supply have been lost since the start of the conflict, while 1 billion barrels have been released from global stocks. Refilling inventories would add about 2 million barrels per day of demand over the next 18 months, he said.

Aramco is also studying additional export routes and greater use of overseas storage to protect against short-term disruptions.

Nasser said Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which moves oil to Red Sea terminals and bypasses Hormuz, helped prevent Brent crude from hitting $200 per barrel.

Reuters contributed to this report.

ISIS-inspired graffiti was discovered at the 9/11 Living Memorial in Jerusalem, the only memorial outside the United States that commemorates by name every victim of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

The vandalism was found just weeks after the Jewish National Fund-USA held a 25th anniversary 9/11 commemoration at the site featuring U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, U.S. Marines, actor Patricia Heaton, bereaved families and other American and Israeli dignitaries.

JNF-USA said guide Daniel Jacobs discovered the graffiti whilae visiting the memorial with a group and immediately reported it.

Crews are expected to remove the vandalism this week.

The discovery also comes days before the third anniversary of the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks in southern Israel. The memorial, located in the foothills of Jerusalem, was created by JNF-USA and KKL-JNF with support from philanthropist Edward Blank.

A Houthi-run maritime coordination body warned airlines flying in Saudi airspace Monday that the kingdom’s skies “would not be safe” as long as Saudi “aggression” continued, according to Houthi-affiliated media.

The warning came as Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a major offensive against the Iran-aligned Houthis, including near the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

It also follows the FlyDubai terrorist attack, in which UAE investigators said a co-pilot stabbed the captain and attempted to hijack a plane carrying more than 170 passengers and crew, most of them Israelis.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell nearly 1% to $90.21 a barrel Monday, even as oil prices traded unevenly amid rising Middle East crude exports and fresh G7 plans to release emergency supplies.

Brent crude edged higher to $102.41 a barrel, while WTI remained under pressure after G7 nations agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves over the next four months.

The added supply comes as Middle Eastern crude exports rose above prewar levels in four of the final seven days of September, despite continuing attacks on vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

Still, analysts warned the Iran war continues to keep a geopolitical risk premium in the market.

PVM Oil Associate analyst Tamas Varga said an elusive Middle East truce and renewed fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis would keep attacks on energy infrastructure and vessels in focus.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces seized key positions along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Monday, as officials vowed to keep fighting until the country is “liberated from the grip of the terrorist militia.”

Military and government sources report government forces had taken large parts of Dhubab district, which overlooks the vital waterway, with heavy air support from the Saudi-led coalition.

Houthi-aligned media denied the advances, calling the claims “completely untrue.”

The push comes as fighting intensifies across Yemen amid the broader U.S.-Iran war.

The Iran-backed Houthis have sought control of Bab el-Mandeb, a critical global energy route, while also firing missiles and drones at Saudi cities and infrastructure.

Saudi Arabia said Monday it had struck hundreds of targets in Yemen to provide air cover for Yemeni ground forces and the Bab el-Mandeb campaign.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Iran executed two men arrested over January protests in Isfahan in connection with the deaths of four police officers, the judiciary’s Mizan news agency reported Monday.

Mizan said Alireza Sepahi and Alireza Raeisi were sentenced to death on charges including “membership in an armed rebel group,” “waging war against God through carrying weapons and creating fear and insecurity,” “corruption on earth” and “incitement to war and killing.”

The report said Iran’s Supreme Court upheld their sentences and the men were executed Monday morning.

President Donald Trump has been forcefully defending Iranians against mass executions and told a reporter when asked about them to “ask the pope.”

U.S. commanders reportedly received new threats about an Iran-backed plot against RAF Fairford in the U.K., prompting a rush to withdraw all U.S. B-1 bomber aircraft from the base.

The news comes from sources to The New York Times.

The bombers had been stationed at RAF Fairford, a key U.S. air base west of London that had recently been used for strikes on Iran.

A Pentagon official told Reuters the aircraft have since returned to their home bases in the U.S.The reported emergency withdrawal came one week after British police arrested several men near the base on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts.

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham said the suspected plot was likely backed by Iran, while Tehran denied involvement.

A NATO military source told Reuters that “it is still believed that Iran poses an acute threat to US assets in the UK.”

Reuters contributed to this report.

The U.S. has removed B-1 bombers from a British air base that had been used for strikes on Iran, one week after arrests tied to a suspected plot near the facility.

The bombers had been stationed at RAF Fairford, a key U.S. air base west of London and one of the few European airfields suitable for heavy bombers. A Pentagon official said the aircraft have returned to their home bases in the U.S.

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham said the suspected plot was likely backed by Iran, while Iran has denied involvement. A NATO military source told Reuters that “it is still believed that Iran poses an acute threat to US assets in the UK.”

A Pentagon spokesman said the U.S. bomber force remains ready to deliver precision global strikes “anywhere, anytime.”

Reuters contributed to this report.

A tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz was hailed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and ordered to turn back or risk being targeted, United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said Monday.

The tanker complied with the instruction, UKMTO said.

The incident occurred 11 nautical miles north of Khasab, Oman, near one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints, as attacks and threats against vessels have escalated during the Iran war.

The IRGC is weaponizing terror threats on commercial vessels to counter U.S. attacks on its nuclear weapons aspirations. In kind, President Donald Trump and CENTCOM have put a full blockade on Iranian oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, crippling the Iranian economy.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Middle East oil exports topped pre-war levels in September as Gulf producers ramped up shipments despite escalating tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, according to Kpler shipping data.

The region’s crude exports hit a seven-day moving average of 18.3 million barrels per day Sept. 30, topping pre-war levels on 14 days in September. Vortexa said Middle East crude and condensate exports reached 18.6 million barrels per day on a 14-day average, exceeding the 10-year seasonal average and returning to pre-conflict levels.

“Most of this month-over-month increase seen in September comes from Saudi Arabia, which is ramping up exports to regain market share from other Middle Eastern countries,” Vortexa senior market analyst Xavier Tang said.

“This increase in Middle East supplies will also help alleviate tightness in the oil market, especially for Asian refiners.”

The supply surge came even as Marisks, a shipping intelligence service, warned that merchant ships crossing the key chokepoint face a “heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat.”

Marisks said at least seven tanker incidents were reported in the past week, including reported strikes on a Kuwaiti very large crude carrier and a Liberian-flagged Aframax tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Yemen’s armed forces said Monday they have begun a “strategic offensive” in the capital Sanaa, marking a major escalation against the Iran-aligned Houthis.

The announcement came after military sources said Yemeni government forces launched attacks on the Houthis from three fronts in the north, west and south of Yemen.

The Houthis have held Sanaa and vast parts of Yemen’s northwest, where most of the country’s population lives.

The offensive seeks to open up shipping routes in the Bab al-Mandab Strait between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. It is the Saudi Arabian equivalent of the Strait of Hormuz that continues to be terrorized by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

President Donald Trump is leaning on Middle East allies to help fight the war to free oil shipping routes as domestic politics and oil prices loom over the midterm elections’ final sprint.

Reuters contributed to this report.