Treasury & pensions minister Torsten Bell is trying to spin Labour’s way into economic sunlight. Doesn’t work…
In a new Substack piece and accompanying X posts Bell ends up making outlandish claims:
Claim: “the UK economy has performed far more strongly this year than almost anyone expected, despite the real headwinds from the conflict in Iran.”
The current upgraded 1.3% growth forecast (which is low growth) simply matches what the IMF predicted in January…
Claim: “So this week the IMF revised up their forecast for UK growth in 2026 to 1.3%, the joint second fastest in the G7 alongside Germany.”
Growth has also been downgraded for next year from 1.3% to 1.2% and the deficit in the same year at 3.2% vs 3.1%…
Claim: “[the IMF] now expects UK inflation to rise in line with the rest of the G7”
The IMF boosted its inflation forecast for 2026 from 3.2% to 3.3% since its last report in April. 2027 is worse – it predicts 2.8% inflation vs 2.4% six months ago…
Claim: “The IMF spell out that the UK is doing more than anyone else in the G7 to strengthen our public finances (something even experienced economic commentators regularly miss)”
All ‘consolidation’ is backloaded and pushed into 2028-29 and 2029-30. Spend now, worry about cuts later…
Claim: “we are delivering the fastest fiscal consolidation in the G7”
Debt is projected to rise from 102% of GDP this year to 102.5% in 2027, debt is not down, we’re still running a deficit…
Claim: “The IMF forecast the UK to have the smallest deficit in the G7 by the end of the decade.”
That is a forecast five years away, previous governments regularly failed to meet similar goals, all observers say the UK has a fiscal black hole…
Claim: “when people oppose our fair tax choices they are really opposing this deficit reduction.”
Deficits can also be cut through spending, tax rises mean choosing slower growth, the disability welfare benefit bill has risen by a quarter in the last four years…
There is a massive cost of borrowing crisis currently underway because the markets do not expect fiscal aptitude from this government. There is a £35 billion black hole. Labour has no plan to cut welfare spending. There is no path to 3% on defence. Cuckoo…