EXPERT COMMENT
Somalia’s domestic instability is being compounded by sharpened regional rivalries, paving the way for a more entrenched conflict as seen elsewhere in the Horn of Africa.
Somalia has been embroiled in a political crisis since May 2026, when the term of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was originally due to expire. Parliament passed constitutional amendments in March that extended presidential terms to five years, keeping President Hassan Sheikh in office until May 2027.
This was disputed by Somalia’s opposition alliance, a coalition of political figures including the leadership of the federal member states of Puntland in the north and Jubaland in the south, as well as the former president of South West State, Abdiaziz Laftagareen. This week, the opposition also rejected the electoral commission’s unilateral announcement that parliamentary and presidential polls would take place in April and May 2027.
The political crisis has sparked fierce clashes in Mogadishu and the city of Baidoa in South West State. The recent fighting around Baidoa, between government forces and opposition-allied fighters loyal to Laftagreen, reportedly involved thousands of fighters and the use of drones and fighter jets.
The federal government, along with its allied federal member state administrations – South West, Hirshabelle, and Galmudug – controls most major cities in southern and central Somalia, while Jubaland, in the far south, is at odds with Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda-affiliated organization, controls much of the surrounding countryside. Meanwhile, the administrations of Puntland and the self-declared Republic of Somaliland govern much of the north, with the newly created and federal government-aligned North East State squeezed in-between.
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