China’s economic footprint in Central Asia is growing. Islamabad has a port, a corridor and strategic cooperation with Beijing. But the question is, will Islamabad make the best of these benefits for a regional economic opportunity or will it simply watch others dictate the future of trade in the Eurasian region?
Central Asia is gaining more and more significance in the global arena viz a viz economic competition. China, Russia and western powers are looking for access to its markets, resources and transport routes. This competition is good for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan but also poses a question of dependence on foreign investments. The evolving regional environment offers the opportunity for Pakistan to tie its own economic future to Central Asia’s rising significance.
The scale of China’s expansion is already visible. Official statistics show that in 2025, China’s trade in goods with the five Central Asian states amounted to $106.3 billion, up by 12 percent from 2024. China’s markets, infrastructure and investments have become significant and the nation is now the region’s biggest trading partner. Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative has also boosted its efforts to reach markets on Eurasia through China.
But increased trade does not necessarily lead to economic independence. Central Asian states could end up becoming importers of higher-value manufactured goods, and exporters of their natural resources. More integration with China, if they do not establish domestic industries, diversify their export markets and obtain advanced technologies, could further aggravate the existing economic imbalances.
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Resisting Chinese investment is not the answer. To provide that investment becomes productive economies and not just a form of dependence. Central Asian governments need to negotiate clear contracts, promote local production, and diversify transport. The success of their efforts should not just be judged by the size of the trade with China but by the number of jobs, skills, industries and economic resilience that it delivers.
This is where Pakistan enters the picture. China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) under the umbrella of wider Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been largely talked about in the context of bilateral cooperation of infrastructure, energy and economy. However, its potential is much more for regional connectivity.
Pakistan’s geography and its access to the Arabian Sea can present landlocked Central Asian economies with new access points to international markets and can also present the Pakistani trade and service companies with the possibilities of new export and logistics service opportunities.
It is no abstract concept. The Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan railway project is a proposed joint feasibility study between Pakistan, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan, which was signed as a framework agreement in July 2025. The possible route might connect the markets of Central Asia with seaports of Pakistan via Afghanistan. The official CPEC framework document of Pakistan also highlights the possibility of benefits of CPEC beyond China and Pakistan in the form of regional connectivity.
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However, it is not to be confused with the existing Central Asia-Pakistan trade corridor. The planned railway is still in the assessment, financial and infrastructure building and political cooperation phases. Security challenges, the disturbance of borders and uncertainty with transit are still significant barriers to Afghanistan. Such challenges are issues that Pakistan needs to solve before it can hope for regional firms to depend on its routes.
Connectivity alone, however, will not help make Pakistan economically competitive. Traders decide on transport corridors, depending on their efficiency and reliability, on the time of delivery, on administrative processes and costs, not on diplomatic declarations. Performing a role in the dependable services of the Pakistani ports, customs and transport network will not discourage the Central Asian countries from seeking other channels via China, Russia and the Caspian region.
Pakistan thus requires a feasible approach. First, it should enhance the efficiency of customs, digitally transform transit and eliminate any delays at the borders which are not required. Second, it should encourage exports which can be taken up by the Central Asian markets competitively even if it were textile, pharmaceuticals, agricultural products and processed goods.
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Thirdly, it should find ways to coordinate with the Chinese and Central Asian governments to evaluate the viability of the existing CPEC infrastructure for the proposed regional transport connections, without taking it for granted that all of them will be commercially viable.
Most significantly, Pakistan has to ensure that regional connectivity creates economic value within the country. Transit fees and port activity are important, but are no substitute for industrial development and competitive exports and jobs. So there should be a second stage of CPEC, in which the infrastructure investment is linked to manufacturing and the development of skills and export diversification.
This goes beyond economic implications. Improving trade ties with Central Asia will expand Pakistan’s diplomatic ties and lessen dependence on a few markets. China may be interested in further commercial links and Central Asian countries in more ways to access global markets. But these benefits will become reality only if the cooperation will take into account the interest of all the countries involved.
In the end, China’s influence is influencing Central Asia, but its future is not certain. Both its governments can leverage competing partnerships as a mechanism to further their autonomy, and so can Pakistan determine whether or not it wishes to be part of this process in a meaningful way.
The real potential of CPEC may not be just the link between China and Pakistan, but for a wider region. But geography only allows the possibility of power; effective infrastructure, industries with competitive power and unintermittent diplomacy makes it possible. If it is not done soon, then it will be yet another missed opportunity for Pakistan.
*The views presented in this article are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Diplomatic Insight.*
Izza Ilyas
Izza Ilyas is a student of International Relations at IIUI, and an intern at IRS. Her interests focus on Middle East politics, security issues, and energy diplomacy. She can be reached at [email protected]