U.S. natgas futures rose 2% before November contract expiry on rising LNG feedgas, as Henry Hub spot fell to its lowest since November 2024.

(P&GJ) — U.S. natural gas futures rose about 2% on Tuesday in volatile trading ahead of contract expiration and as more gas flowed to LNG export plants in recent days.

On its second-to-last day as the front month, November futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange climbed 6 cents to $2.662/MMBtu. The contract remained in technically oversold territory for a fifth straight session, the longest such stretch since April, after closing Monday at its lowest level since April 28. Analysts said the low close and the coming expiration prompted some short sellers to take profits.

December futures, which will soon become the front month, held near $3.02/MMBtu.

In the spot market, next-day gas at Henry Hub in Louisiana fell to $2.52/MMBtu, its lowest since November 2024.

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has slipped to 112 Bcfd so far in October from record highs of 113.3 Bcfd in August and September, though daily output has recovered to about 113.5 Bcfd over the past week.

Meteorologists expect mostly milder-than-normal weather through Nov. 11, limiting heating demand. Even so, LSEG forecast average Lower 48 demand, including exports, will rise from 105.7 Bcfd this week to 110.7 Bcfd next week.

Average gas flows to the nine major U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 18.3 Bcfd so far in October from 17.9 Bcfd in September, below the monthly record of 18.8 Bcfd set in April. Daily LNG feedgas has averaged about 19.2 Bcfd over the past two weeks.

Global prices remain near 46-month highs, with gas trading around $31/MMBtu at the Dutch TTF benchmark and $32/MMBtu at the Japan-Korea Marker. U.S. prices have reacted little, however, because the country produces all the gas it consumes and U.S. LNG plants are already running near capacity. The U.S. cannot export more LNG until new liquefaction units under construction enter service.

Analysts expect a 68 Bcf storage injection for the week ended Oct. 23, which would bring U.S. inventories to 3,712 Bcf, about 0.7% above the five-year average.