Portugal must strengthen its European and transatlantic alliances while expanding its diplomatic presence across Asia and defending international law against growing geopolitical instability. Addressing the Estoril Conferences, Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel warned that the world was entering a new era of great-power rivalry, regional conflicts and protectionism, requiring a more assertive but pragmatic foreign policy.
Text and Image: Chris Graeme
Portugal’s Minister of State and Foreign Affairs, Paulo Rangel, has called for renewed international cooperation, stronger European defence capabilities and an ambitious network of free trade agreements to counter the growing fragmentation of the global political and economic order.
Speaking at the 10th Estoril Conferences on 29 October 2026, Rangel outlined Portugal’s foreign policy priorities against a backdrop of increasing tensions between major powers, military conflicts and mounting threats to international institutions.
He argued that Portugal’s historic Atlantic identity, European commitments and global diplomatic relationships placed the country in a distinctive position to promote international cooperation.
A new geopolitical era
Rangel warned that the international system was undergoing a fundamental transformation, moving beyond the assumptions that had shaped international relations since the end of the Cold War. “We are really living in a time of historical transition on the eve of, or perhaps already in, a new geopolitical era.”
Describing the present moment as a period of historical realignment, he suggested that the relatively predictable international order established during the Cold War had given way to a more complicated and unstable environment. “We are witnessing a defrosting of history after the Cold War.”
The new geopolitical landscape, he explained, was characterised not only by renewed competition between the United States and China, but also by the emergence of influential middle powers capable of challenging larger countries within their own regions.
“What mostly defines this new era is the return of great power competition and the birth of a huge number of middle power states,” he said.
These rivalries increasingly extended beyond traditional military competition to encompass international trade, technological development, energy security and access to strategic resources.
Europe’s security awakening
For Europe, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had fundamentally altered the continent’s security priorities.
Rangel described the conflict as a turning point that had forced European governments to reassess their defence capabilities and strategic vulnerabilities. “In fact, it was Russia’s full-scale invasion that served as Europe’s wake-up call.”
He stressed that strengthening European defence was no longer simply a political aspiration, but a strategic necessity recognised across the European Union. “Investment in Europe’s defence, in Europe’s security, is now widely recognised as of paramount importance and priority.”
Beyond Europe, Rangel expressed concern about continuing instability in the Middle East and the humanitarian consequences of conflicts across Africa, including Sudan, the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and Central Africa.
He criticised the tendency of international diplomacy to devote disproportionate attention to certain conflicts while neglecting others. “We do not believe that there are first and second-tier conflicts.”
Portugal’s Atlantic and European identity
Turning to Portugal’s strategic position, Rangel offered a characteristically humorous description of the country’s geography. “Portugal is an island surrounded by the sea and Spain.”
The observation illustrated Portugal’s historic dependence on maritime connections and its longstanding orientation towards the Atlantic.
He recalled the Treaty of Windsor, which established the historic alliance between Portugal and England, as an early demonstration of the country’s outward-looking diplomatic tradition.
Portugal’s subsequent integration into European institutions had not diminished its Atlantic identity, he argued.
“For us, there is no contradiction between the special transatlantic relationship and the European integration process.”
The government would therefore continue working to reconcile its commitment to European integration with its strategic relationship across the Atlantic, maintaining both as fundamental pillars of Portuguese foreign policy.
Expanding Portugal’s influence in Asia
Rangel also outlined plans to strengthen Portugal’s diplomatic representation across the Indo-Pacific, a region becoming increasingly important to global economic and political relations.
He highlighted Portugal’s historical connections with China and Southeast Asia, describing these relationships as valuable foundations for contemporary diplomacy.
Portugal had opened an embassy in Vietnam in 2026 and planned to reopen its diplomatic mission in Manila in 2027, followed by an embassy in Malaysia in 2028. “Our presence in the Indo-Pacific will be stronger and stronger because Portugal has this global vision.”
He emphasised that effective multilateral diplomacy increasingly depended on developing strong bilateral relationships.
“Before going to the multilateral forum, we have to do the homework at the bilateral level.”
For Portugal, expanding its diplomatic network would provide opportunities to strengthen political dialogue, diversify economic relationships and increase its influence within international organisations.
International law and freedom of navigation
Rangel reaffirmed Portugal’s commitment to the United Nations and the international rules-based order, stressing the importance of protecting maritime trade routes.
He highlighted threats affecting the Strait of Hormuz, the Black Sea, the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, warning that disruptions could have consequences extending far beyond energy markets and international shipping.
“In the next months, it’s not only the freedom of navigation that is at stake. It’s the food security for all the world, and in particular for the African continent, that is at stake.”
Access to fertilisers and essential food supplies, he argued, made maritime security a humanitarian as well as an economic priority.
He also referred to Portugal’s prospective 2027–2028 term on the United Nations Security Council as an opportunity to defend international law and the principles of the UN Charter.
Diplomacy over political headlines
The Foreign Minister defended Portugal’s preference for measured diplomatic responses rather than decisions driven by immediate political pressure.
“Diplomacy must keep its ability to influence events and not respond to all the media demands of today, tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow.”
He cited Portugal’s recognition of Palestine in 2025, while simultaneously condemning the attacks of 7 October 2023 and acknowledging Israel’s legitimate security requirements, as an example of this approach.
Rangel also referred to tensions involving Ceuta, arguing that Portugal had supported coordinated European action and dialogue with Spain and Morocco rather than premature measures that could undermine the Schengen area.
Free trade as a geopolitical necessity
Concluding his address, Rangel strongly defended international trade liberalisation as an essential response to growing protectionism.
He highlighted the importance of agreements involving the European Union and Mercosur, India, Australia, Canada, Mexico, Vietnam and potentially ASEAN.
“The only way to combat the concerning trends to protectionism is to have a solid network of free trade agreements around the world.”
Such agreements, he argued, were not simply commercial arrangements but instruments for reducing strategic dependencies, diversifying energy supplies and strengthening political relationships.
“They are not only geo-economic, they are geopolitical ties that benefit all the people that live within these regions.”
Openness in an increasingly divided world
Rangel’s message was that Portugal should respond to global uncertainty not by retreating behind national borders, but by strengthening alliances, expanding diplomatic engagement and defending international institutions.
For a relatively small European country with a global historical footprint, its influence would depend on combining pragmatic diplomacy with a consistent commitment to openness.
In a world increasingly defined by competing powers and economic nationalism, the Foreign Minister presented free trade, multilateral cooperation and respect for international law as essential foundations for future prosperity and stability.