Vice President Leads Governor and Secretary in Their Own Home State
Vice President JD Vance leads Governor Ron DeSantis, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and a crowded field for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination in Florida. The Sunshine State Poll was conducted by BIG DATA POLL and the 1776 Law Center as part of the Public Polling Project for October 2026.
Sunshine State Poll: Ashley Moody Leads Angie Craig, Governor’s Race Tight
In the Sunshine State Poll for 2026, BIG DATA POLL asked Republican voters screened for primary participation for whom they’d vote in the presidential nomination were held today. Vice President Vance leads Governor DeSantis by roughly 5 points, 30.6% to 25.6%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio trailing in third at 24.8%.
No other candidate breaks double-digits and only 4.4% are undecided.
In a Republican primary for President, non-college and college margins are everything. Vice President Vance leads among both demographics. Among non-college, he leads 28.6% to to 25.6% and just 23.3%, respectively. Among college educated Republicans, he leads 33.4% to to 27.6% for Secretary Rubio and 25.1% for Governor DeSantis.
“This is a little bit déjà vu,” BIG DATA POLL Director Rich Baris, said in a statement. “In 2024, President Donald Trump led by smaller margin in Florida, but large margins everywhere else. By the time we even got to Florida, he dominated and it was all over.”
“That is what the early read on 2028 feels like to me.”
About the Sunshine State Poll: BIG DATA POLL’s Unmatched Record in Florida
BIG DATA POLL has the most accurate record in the Sunshine State. In 2014, our debut not only correctly projected Rick Scott’s margin, but called it to 70,000 votes. In 2016, our polling showed Donald J. Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton by 1.6%. He defeated her by 1.4%. In 2020, we projected Donald Trump would win by 3 points. He won by 3.3%. In 2024, BIG DATA POLL was the first poll to show President Trump would carry not only Miami-Dade, but the state overall by double-digits, and our final poll showed he would defeat then-Vice President Kamala Harris by 13 points. He defeated Harris 56.1% to 43.0.
Methodology
BIG DATA POLL interviewed 1201 registered voters and 1129 likely voters in Florida for the 1776 Law Center and Public Polling Project from October 26 – 30, 2026. Interviews conducted online (≈40%) are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and live-agent phone interviews (≈60%) including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from either the L2 National Voter File Database. Participants who opted for text-to-online were given 24 hours to complete the interview. Interview details plotted on maps can be reviewed by hovering and clicking on the locator pins. Results were weighted for sex, age, race and ethnicity, education, and geography. The overall sampling error is ±3.0% for both the registered voter sample and the likely voter sample, and ±3.8% for the screened Republican primary voter sample at a 95% confidence level. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the PUBLIC POLLING PROJECT, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.